673
FXUS64 KAMA 241938 CCA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
236 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Dry weather continues to hold over the Panhandles after the cold
frontal passage late last night. Temperatures for the day are
still on schedule to run slightly cooler than the last couple days
with afternoon highs peaking around the low to mid 80s for today.
As we head into the overnight, look for winds to shift back to
southerly with the incoming weak trough and southwesterly flow
that will follow in the upper-levels.

Moving into Saturday, look for this southwesterly flow to hold for
the day and aid in creating a very dry and gusty day for the
Panhandles. Currently, latest guidance expects relative humidity
values to bottom out across the Panhandles with most of the
western counties looking at values in the single digits by that
afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper-level jet will look to follow the
weak trough into the area and bleed down to create gusty condition
across the Panhandles. As it stand, southwesterly winds reaching
the 25 to 30 mph mark with gust nearing 45 mph are possible,
especially in the western Panhandles where winds are expected to
be at their strongest. Of course when you add these dry conditions
with gusty winds, critical fire weather is to be expected. At this
time, a Red Flag Warning has been issue for the western half of
the Panhandles that will run form noon Saturday afternoon until 8
pm that night. As for temperatures, look for them to rebound with
many locations back into 90s with a couple of our hotter locations
flirting with triple digits yet again. Otherwise, the only other
concern for the day will be the very low potential of
thunderstorms starting on the eastern border of the Panhandles
before moving off into central Oklahoma.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A trough is still likely to have passed to the east of the
southern plains which in doing so will pass a weak cold front
across the panhandles early on Sunday. This will shift the winds
to a more northerly direction and bring in slightly cooler dry
air. This will make both Sunday and Memorial day warm with sunny
skies with generally light winds. All in all in can be considered
by most to be a pleasant weather day to kick off the start of
summer. For Sunday and Monday a ridge still has a high chance to
build across NM to MT. This coupled with the trough to the east
will set up a broad NW flow across the southern plains. This
pattern will induce a southerly return flow across the southern
plains bringing in ample gulf moisture to the panhandles. This
will allow for rain showers and thunderstorms to form across the
panhandles. The amount of moisture has been increasing from
previous forecasts so it is looking increasingly likely that
meaningful rainfall will occur. The upper flow does have some
indications that small perturbations will transit over the ridge
passing across the panhandles. These could provide the additional
lift and dynamics to cause stronger storms. However these remain
uncertain so just know that there is a chance for those strong
storms but they are not yet guaranteed. Next weekend looks more
likely than not to have another pattern shift with the ridge
pushing east across the panhandles while a trough quickly deepens
across the West. This pattern shift indicates that the moisture
feed should be cut off from the panhandles while conditions become
increasingly stable. This would have the effect of lowering the
amount of rain showers and thunderstorms and also keeping
rainfall amounts low. Temperatures mid to end of next week look to
remain fairly stable with highs mainly in the 80s to low 90s.
Winds look to pick up a standard diurnal pattern of weakly gusty
during the daytime and light overnight.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Surface winds continue to gust at all terminals through the early
afternoon, with winds not expected to slow until the early
evening. Expect these winds to slowly shift directions over the
course of the day with all terminals expecting to have winds out
of the south by late tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions should
hold for the next 24 hours at all the terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Saturday, winds are expected to strengthen through the morning
into the afternoon hours to 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40-45 mph.
Morning relative humidity values in the western combined
Panhandles will start rather high, between 50% to 60%, but plummet
through the morning hours and into the afternoon to a minimum of
5% to 10%. This produces RFTI values between 5 to 7 with localized
pockets of 8 possible. As such... a Red Flag Warning has been issued
for much of the western half of the combined Panhandles for Saturday.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                55  95  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  52  95  57  89 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              48  90  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  56 100  60  94 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              55  97  56  93 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  53  95  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               53  95  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 49  91  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  50  94  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                53  96  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                53  93  60  89 /   0  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   54  95  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                53  95  64  91 /   0  10   0   0
Wellington TX              53  97  64  93 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ001-002-
     006-007-011-012-016-017-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...11