298
FXUS64 KAMA 220510
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1210 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Tonight will be a fairly quiet night weather wise as the main
impacts will be a cold front move through and bring temperatures
back into the mid 40s to mid 50s by Wednesday morning. Winds will
be around 15 to 25 mph, so nothing to excessive by Panhandle
standards. As far as Wednesday goes for highs, it`s a little up in
the air, as we have a battle between warmer air quickly returning,
or a cold moist pocket lingering in our south and east. Overall,
the forecast has trended towards the warmer solution. That being
said we will have to keep an eye on the southeast tonight. If the
colder solution pans out, then we could get some low clouds and
maybe even some drizzle. Additionally, if the cooler/moist
solution pans out for Wednesday night, we could get enough
moisture to saturate to the top of the inversion, and there is
ample CAPE (>3000 J/kg) above the inversion, that we could get
some overnight storms in the southeast. Especially as we expect a
shortwave to move through overnight tomorrow night. Confidence is
very low so for now no mention in the forecast, but it will be the
main focus as far as impactful weather for the short term.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Thursday we`re still watching close, but the moisture looks to be
too far east and it will likely just be dry and breezy for
elevated Fire Conditions. If the moisture pulls further back to
the west, then possible strong to severe storms would be in play
for the eastern Panhandles. But again, this scenario seems
unlikely at this time. Highs on Thursday look to be in the 90s.
Friday we`ll see another quick frontal system clip the area and
drop the temperatures into the upper 70s for the north and the mid
80s to the south. We`ll then transition to dry westerly flow for
the weekend, with highs in the 90s again. We`ll start to move back
to northwest flow on Monday with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s. Overall, Monday looks dry, but there`s a pattern change
possibly holding in the extended, where the northwest flow could
prevail and multiple days of thunderstorms will be possible
starting Tuesday.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated through the next 24 hours. A cold
front has moved through KDHT and KGUY and is moving toward KAMA.
Expect northerly to northeasterly gusts around 30 kts with the
passage of the front, but winds should weaken with time as the
front moves away. Winds gradually trend toward southeasterly
through the day at 10-15 kts.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                78  56  92  55 /   0  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  79  53  93  55 /   0  10  10   0
Boise City OK              77  51  88  48 /  10  10   0   0
Borger TX                  82  59  96  57 /   0  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              82  56  95  54 /   0  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  79  56  93  55 /   0  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               77  57  92  58 /   0  10  10   0
Dalhart TX                 78  50  89  49 /   0  10   0   0
Guymon OK                  78  53  92  50 /   0  10   0   0
Hereford TX                81  56  93  54 /   0  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                79  55  92  58 /   0  10  10   0
Pampa TX                   78  56  92  56 /   0  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                78  57  92  58 /  10  10  10   0
Wellington TX              79  59  93  58 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...52