Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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301 FXUS64 KAMA 280523 AAB AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1223 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Quiet and benign weather continues to hold over the Panhandles this afternoon as an upper-level ridge build in over the area. However, do not expect this weather to last much longer as the lower levels of the atmosphere begin to set up a more active pattern. To go into further details, to our west a low pressure system is moving in and expected to stall for the next couple of days. This low will work in tandem with a high pressure system off the Gulf Coast to create good southerly flow across the western Texas and the Panhandles, which will then allow good moisture to flow into the area. As it stands, latest observations have already begun to see this expected moisture with dewpoints across the CWA already on the rise this afternoon. With moisture surging in, the atmosphere will be primed to showers and thunderstorms for most of the week with multiple CAMs suggesting we may evening see activity start as early as tonight. However, better chances will likely follow tomorrow with the arrival of a short-wave disturbance for the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to follow with potential to last into the overnight, but it is the impact where the confidence begins to wain. As it stands, CAMs are expecting MLCAPE to reach around 2500 to 3000 J/kg with good effective shear present at 30 to 40 kt. The RAP its self has been very consistent a pocket of 4000 J/kg of MLCAPE running across the southeast that afternoon as well, which would indicate the potential for very large hail. However with PWAT values expected be greater than 1 inch and storm motions under 25 kt, there is real potential that we see a lot of rain and concerns shift more to the flooding aspect. Of course there is also the option of something in between, like getting a lot of small hail rather than isolated large hail. As for the potential for tornadoes, currently most model are running on the very low end of the possibility, but there is some potential present in the south where 0 to 3 km shear is much better. Regardless, much on these ingredients will have to be monitor clear into initiation Tuesday afternoon as they are still able to change, especially if we do get showers and thunderstorm tonight that last clear into tomorrow morning. Scoleri && .LONG TERM ... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Looking ahead to several chances of rain and thunderstorms throughout a good portion of the Panhandles, with obvious tweaks to the forecast as we approach each coming day. To start on Wednesday, leftover elevated showers and thunderstorms from the previous evening will move east across the eastern Panhandles throughout the first half of the day. Latest 27/12Z model and numerical guidance shows a low amplitude ridge impacting general UL subsidence over the majority of the Panhandles on Wednesday. By Wednesday night, as the central and northern Plains has aided lift from a broad area of PVA ejecting out of the central Rockies, the southern extent of said convection may impact our northern combined Panhandles with the higher chances being there. Thursday also looks to be quite an interesting day for strong to severe convection. Cloud cover, along with more accurate timing of other mesoscale features will have to be analyzed more closely. However, a notable H500 neutral tiled trough moving east with its main axis extending south of the Four Corners Region will place the best diffluence over the Panhandles for organized lift across the region. If cloud cover can diminish, along with decent CAPE values in place, this low shear, high CAPE environment could suffice for strong to severe thunderstorms. In-conjunction with large hail and damaging wind gusts with severe storms, PWAT values are in the 99th percentile for this time of year, so any training and/or slow moving thunderstorms could produce localized flooding. With series of perturbations moving east across the Rockies, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible straight through the coming weekend. Intensity and/or coverage of thunderstorms will be better analyzed each passing day with frequent updates. With the exception of the airmass in the wake of the cold front by Friday with highs below average, the remainder of the forecast period from Wednesday through the coming weekend will feature temperatures above average as we approach the end of May into early June. Meccariello && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 East and southeast winds will remain around 10 knots until about mid afternoon when they should increase to around 15 knots with occasional higher gusts. Thunderstorms are expected to affect all of the TAF sites either late this afternoon or this evening. A strong to severe storm may affect the AMA TAF site. Skies are expected to remain VFR outside of thunderstorms, but will likely fall into the MVFR range in thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 86 58 76 61 / 50 60 40 50 Beaver OK 83 58 79 60 / 50 70 40 50 Boise City OK 82 55 78 57 / 50 60 50 40 Borger TX 89 61 81 63 / 50 70 40 50 Boys Ranch TX 90 58 82 61 / 50 60 30 40 Canyon TX 88 58 76 60 / 50 60 40 50 Clarendon TX 86 59 75 61 / 60 70 50 50 Dalhart TX 84 54 79 58 / 50 60 40 40 Guymon OK 83 56 79 58 / 50 70 40 50 Hereford TX 91 58 80 61 / 50 50 40 40 Lipscomb TX 82 59 78 62 / 50 70 40 60 Pampa TX 84 59 77 61 / 50 70 40 50 Shamrock TX 83 60 77 62 / 60 70 50 60 Wellington TX 86 61 78 62 / 70 70 60 50 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...15