133
FXUS64 KAMA 250528
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1228 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Looking at the latest 25/00z CAMs, most guidance does have a dry
line developing across the far eastern Panhandles by Saturday
afternoon. How far west the dry line remains varies from model to
model, but there is more consistency that the dry line will remain
across the eastern stack of counties in the CWA. With that being
said, plenty of moisture out ahead of the feature combined with
lift from the dry line and weak forcing aloft may generate a storm
or two across the east by late afternoon. Have introduced low end
mentionable 10 percent chance of storms to the forecast with this
update. If storms do form across the east, they could quickly
become severe with the primary hazard being large hail up to golf
ball size.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Dry weather continues to hold over the Panhandles after the cold
frontal passage late last night. Temperatures for the day are
still on schedule to run slightly cooler than the last couple days
with afternoon highs peaking around the low to mid 80s for today.
As we head into the overnight, look for winds to shift back to
southerly with the incoming weak trough and southwesterly flow
that will follow in the upper-levels.

Moving into Saturday, look for this southwesterly flow to hold for
the day and aid in creating a very dry and gusty day for the
Panhandles. Currently, latest guidance expects relative humidity
values to bottom out across the Panhandles with most of the
western counties looking at values in the single digits by that
afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper-level jet will look to follow the
weak trough into the area and bleed down to create gusty condition
across the Panhandles. As it stand, southwesterly winds reaching
the 25 to 30 mph mark with gust nearing 45 mph are possible,
especially in the western Panhandles where winds are expected to
be at their strongest. Of course when you add these dry conditions
with gusty winds, critical fire weather is to be expected. At this
time, a Red Flag Warning has been issue for the western half of
the Panhandles that will run form noon Saturday afternoon until 8
pm that night. As for temperatures, look for them to rebound with
many locations back into 90s with a couple of our hotter locations
flirting with triple digits yet again. Otherwise, the only other
concern for the day will be the very low potential of
thunderstorms starting on the eastern border of the Panhandles
before moving off into central Oklahoma.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A trough is still likely to have passed to the east of the
southern plains which in doing so will pass a weak cold front
across the panhandles early on Sunday. This will shift the winds
to a more northerly direction and bring in slightly cooler dry
air. This will make both Sunday and Memorial day warm with sunny
skies with generally light winds. All in all in can be considered
by most to be a pleasant weather day to kick off the start of
summer. For Sunday and Monday a ridge still has a high chance to
build across NM to MT. This coupled with the trough to the east
will set up a broad NW flow across the southern plains. This
pattern will induce a southerly return flow across the southern
plains bringing in ample gulf moisture to the panhandles. This
will allow for rain showers and thunderstorms to form across the
panhandles. The amount of moisture has been increasing from
previous forecasts so it is looking increasingly likely that
meaningful rainfall will occur. The upper flow does have some
indications that small perturbations will transit over the ridge
passing across the panhandles. These could provide the additional
lift and dynamics to cause stronger storms. However these remain
uncertain so just know that there is a chance for those strong
storms but they are not yet guaranteed. Next weekend looks more
likely than not to have another pattern shift with the ridge
pushing east across the panhandles while a trough quickly deepens
across the West. This pattern shift indicates that the moisture
feed should be cut off from the panhandles while conditions become
increasingly stable. This would have the effect of lowering the
amount of rain showers and thunderstorms and also keeping
rainfall amounts low. Temperatures mid to end of next week look to
remain fairly stable with highs mainly in the 80s to low 90s.
Winds look to pick up a standard diurnal pattern of weakly gusty
during the daytime and light overnight.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period.
Winds currently out of the south will increase out of the
southwest tomorrow, sustained at 20-25 kts, gusting around 35-40
kts. Some marginal LLWS still can`t be ruled out at KDHT tonight,
but continue to lack confidence for including mentions at this
time.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                95  61  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  95  57  89  53 /  10   0   0   0
Boise City OK              90  52  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                 100  60  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              97  56  93  54 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  95  58  91  53 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               95  63  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 91  51  88  50 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  94  55  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                96  58  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                93  60  89  55 /  10   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   95  60  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                95  64  91  58 /  10   0   0   0
Wellington TX              97  64  93  60 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016-017-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...38