Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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681 FXUS64 KAMA 051940 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 240 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Starting tonight, many members of the hi-res/global 05/12Z model and numerical guidance are hinting at some wind headlines for mainly the far NW Panhandles. Watching a stout H850 jet set up tonight lee of the Rockies where additional mid level subsidence on the right entrance region of jet should enhance good mixing tonight, especially if clouds were to thin out overnight. Thus the wind headline for tonight highlighting the potential for sustained winds up to 35 mph, with higher gusts at times, should favor the far NW Panhandles tonight through just before sunrise as the main H850 will then exit east of the Panhandles past sunrise. Lows tonight will be mild as partly cloudy skies and southerly winds are expected with low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s. The timing of the dryline will be key for tomorrow`s active weather of thunderstorms to the east and critical fire weather conditions to the west. The majority of the latest 12-18Z data coming in shows the dryline mixing well into western Oklahoma by 19-21Z Monday afternoon. As we know, with sub par winds on the backside of past dryline(s) so far this season, in- conjunction with previous set ups of more pronounced east and southeasterly sfc flow the day of preventing the dryline to fully mix out to the east, the model data in the past has not always been fully accurate. We will have to watch the observational trends closely. As of this current forecast package, the NAM12 is one of the few model data sets hinting at a shift of the dryline slightly back to the west. Although the said minority in all of the data sets at this point, if the farthest west solution of the dryline were to materialize by tomorrow afternoon, along with breaking any mid level cap, the most favorable setup for severe thunderstorm potential of sfc-6km shear of 30-45 kts, along with SB/MLCAPE of at least 3000 J/kg, decent H850-700 theta-e advection into the region ahead of the dryline, along with other parameters, the set up could be there for severe thunderstorms along and ahead of the dryline. Again, as of the current forecast, this is in the bottom 20% of probability of occurring with most data sets pushing the dryline well into western Oklahoma before storms materialize there, leaving our entire area dry. Will have to watch morning observations closely tomorrow morning to see where important sfc and low level parameters materialize. Back across the western Panhandles, breezy W/SW winds and low RH values will result in critical fire weather conditions, with more details in the fire weather section below. Highest confidence shows the western and central combined Panhandles in the wake of the dryline by tomorrow afternoon. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid 70s in the west to mid and upper 80s in the east. Lows tomorrow night will range from the low 40s in the west to low 50s in the east. Meccariello && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated to critical fire weather condition are expected for tomorrow, mainly for the western combined Panhandles. Min RH values will drop to as low as 7 percent by tomorrow afternoon. Combined with 20 ft winds out of the southwest at 20-30 mph, max RFTI values will range from 4 to 9 across the area of interest. With mixed green-up ongoing across portions of the areas of concern, we still have max ERC values in the 60th to as high as the 80th percentile values. Meccariello && .LONG TERM ... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Zonal flow will dominate the upper level pattern during the extended period. Multiple shortwave troughs will transition through the area as the week progresses. By the weekend, models forecast an upper level low to close into the region from the west, but guidance is still uncertain on the exact track it will take. Critical fire weather is possible once again on Tuesday for the western half of the Panhandles. RFTI values approach values of 7, but are again mostly RH driven. Wind speeds at the surface will be between 20-30 mph from the southwest, during the afternoon hours. RH values may drop below 10% for this afternoon timeframe as well. Highs at the surface may reside in the 80`s range for the day. Wednesday onward, a series of surface troughs will traverse through the area keeping winds generally out of the north and temperatures near average heading into the weekend. By Saturday and Sunday, our next system may enter in and introduce a pattern change. PoPs may return for the CWA, but long term guidance still diverges when forecasting the system`s track. Therefore, coverage and QPF is still in question. We have continued to leave NBM values alone for these reasons. Rangel && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 MVFR/VFR conditions to start the 18Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Conditions should improve to VFR levels over the next 1-3 hours and continue until 08-10Z Monday where MVFR cigs may return for KAMA/KGUY. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites between 12-15Z and continue to the end of the TAF period. Winds will start out of the south at 10-15 kts. Winds will then pick up for KGUY/KDHT after midnight with winds sustained of 20-30 kts with gusts to near 40 kts at times. Winds after sunrise for all TAF sites will then be out of the SW at 15-25 kts with higher gusts at times throughout the remainder of the TAF period. Meccariello && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 58 81 47 85 / 10 0 0 0 Beaver OK 58 84 44 86 / 10 20 0 0 Boise City OK 56 76 40 83 / 10 0 0 0 Borger TX 60 85 50 89 / 10 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 60 82 45 88 / 10 0 0 0 Canyon TX 59 81 45 85 / 20 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 58 84 51 85 / 20 10 0 0 Dalhart TX 55 78 38 84 / 10 0 0 0 Guymon OK 57 81 43 86 / 10 10 0 0 Hereford TX 60 81 45 86 / 10 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 59 85 49 86 / 10 20 0 0 Pampa TX 59 83 49 85 / 10 10 0 0 Shamrock TX 58 87 52 84 / 20 20 0 0 Wellington TX 59 87 52 85 / 10 20 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Monday for TXZ001-002-006- 011. Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM CDT Monday for TXZ001-002- 006-007-011-012-016-017-317. OK...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Monday for OKZ001-002. Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM CDT Monday for OKZ001-002. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...29