Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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651 FXUS63 KAPX 250617 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 217 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain likely with embedded thunder Sunday night, showers possible on Memorial Day. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 215 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Vertically stacked low pressure is centered over southeast Manitoba/western Ontario early this morning. Attendant occluded front currently in the process of crossing northern Michigan will clear to the east this morning. Mid-level heights rebound through the remainder of the forecast period with high pressure sliding from the mid-MS Valley into the western Great Lakes this afternoon into tonight. Forecast Details: Scattered to numerous rain showers and a few rumbles of thunder out there at this early hour. This activity will continue to slide east through the early morning, largely clearing the entirety of APX`s footprint by mid-morning. Upstream, a sharp clearing line in sky cover noted over eastern WI, which will follow suit from west to east across the forecast area leaving lots of sunshine area-wide this afternoon. High temperatures several degrees cooler today -- closer to normal for late May... ranging from the mid-60s to the mid-70s area-wide (warmest in downsloping areas of northeast lower). A return of mid-high cloud tonight, but with little in the way of sensible weather. Lows ranging from the mid-40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 215 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Pressure gradient begins to tighten on Sunday as a low pressure system approaches from the mid Miss Valley. This low pressure system then moves northeast across Lake Michigan and the UP & vicinity consequent of a compact short wave moving from WI to the UP. Showers overspread the region due to the warm, moist advection and lift associated with this feature. Another fast moving upper low swings down into Michigan Tuesday-ish resulting in more showers. Dry subsident flow on the backside of this system will likely result in a drier period mid-late next week. Heights might even rise and thus warming temperatures possible. Primary Forecast Concerns: Sfc low pressure approaches Sunday evening spreading rain showers with some embedded thunderstorm chances into the overnight hours. Low pressure track looks to be across the far northwest portions of our county warning area, thus there may be a propensity to have better coverage of precipitation in this region, but it really depends on if the lift from the sfc low clips this region. Regardless...breezy and cooler conditions expected as the pressure gradient tightens, which may be especially true Monday over the land. Latest guidance suggests the upper level energy moves off to the northeast through Monday, but additional low pressure development may keep showers hanging around during the day. Another upper low drops down on Tuesday resulting in generally minor rain accumulation. This will continue the theme of breezy winds and cooler temperatures. Drier flow and rising heights mid to late week shift the pattern to one of lesser precipitation and warmer temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to develop along and ahead of an approaching cold front that will sweep thru the Western Great Lakes region overnight into Saturday morning. VFR conditions will drop to MVFR/possibly IFR overnight into Saturday morning as the convection impacts Northern Michigan. Conditions will improve to VFR by Saturday afternoon and evening as this cold front and resulting precip exit our region. E/SE surface winds at 10 to 20 kts overnight will become W/NW on Saturday in the wake of the cold front. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJG LONG TERM...JLD AVIATION...MLR