Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 280237
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1037 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1036 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Not much going on out there tonight. Band of light showers just
clipping the eastern extent of eastern upper Michigan, while just
a touch of drizzle lingers over the higher terrain of northern
lower. This should come to an end in the next few hours.
Otherwise, expansive area of low clouds set to linger through
tonight as upstream clearing as slowed considerably. Inherited
forecast has above rather well covered, so only minimal changes
needed to account for real-time temperature trends.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

...Slow Improvement...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Upper flow is fairly zonal but wavy, but
parade of upper lows continues to move across the middle of the US.
Latest is over MO this afternoon. At the surface, low over
SE Ontario, with another over the lower Midwest. High pressure in
Manitoba.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Concerns for tonight include how
dense the fog gets and how fast clearing occurs from the north.
High in Manitoba continues to slowly drop SE and will increasingly
influence our weather over the next 48 hours. Expect low clouds
to persist and fog to reform again after dark tonight as only slow
erosion of low level moisture continues. However, by daybreak
there could be some breaks in the clouds across the UP. Conditions
for Tuesday will improve quickly in the morning as the high
inches closer.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

...Quiet Wednesday before rain chances return Thursday...

High impact weather potential...none.

High pressure transiting Hudson Bay will extend ridging into the
Great Lakes region at mid-week. This will provide a welcome period
of quiet wx and at least some sunshine. However, things start
downhill again beginning Thu, as a southern stream closed low ejects
from the southern Rockies. Associated precip may start to push into
southern sections on Thursday, and being on the northern periphery
of the precip shield, this precip might not be only rain. Precip
trends are the main concern.

Tue night thru Wed night...quiet, with a 500mb shortwave ridge axis
moving overhead late Wed. Shallow cool air will be pushing into the
region on ne 1000-850mb flow, with 905mb temps to -8C. That will try
to generate some lake clouds, especially in ne lower MI, though a
dry airmass and only weak (less than 10kt) onshore flow will hinder
that process. Still, expect no worse than partly cloudy skies for
Tue night/Wed (mainly in ne lower MI), with plenty of locales mostly
clear. On Wed night, cirrus and eventually mid clouds will be
thickening from sw to ne, as stronger warm advection shifts into the
mid MS Valley and sw Great Lakes. There is excellent agreement that
any precip holds off, thanks to dry air between 900 and 700mb.

Min temps both nights mainly in the mid 20s to around 30f. Max temps
Wed held back by a coolish airmass, so only near 40 to the mid 40s.

Thu...models still have considerable latitudinal spread as to where
the ejecting system will be going, but less so than 12 hours ago.
Nam/GFS still favor a more southern track, edging precip into
southern sections. ECMWF lifts the system more ne-ward, with precip
overspreading most of northern MI as the day proceeds. However,
brand-new 12Z Euro has trended southward. Will keep things middle-of-
the-road for now until further confidence/clarification is gained.
The gradual ne-ward development of the cold conveyor belt will
result in pops expanding northward into northern lower MI during the
day. Likely pops are in order in the extreme south in the afternoon.
Prime determinant of p-type will be the depth of a surface-based
warm layer. That favors mostly rain for most of Thu. If precip gets
started early enough in the morning in southern sections, things
could start as snow before diurnal heating kicks in. Similarly, some
snowflakes could mix in toward dusk over eastern upper and far
northern lower MI, if precip gets that far north. No accums either
way.

Max temps rather cool, near 40f to the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Surface will move up the Ohio Valley Thu night into Friday, with us
still on the northern periphery of the precip shield. This precip
will tend to mix with and turn back over to snow with loss of
heating Thu night, and small accums are feasible, mainly in northern
lower MI. By Friday, the most widespread precip should be to our s
and e, though chancy pops will linger.

Wnw flow then takes hold aloft, with an occasional weak clipper
passing to our north. Chance for mixed precip will be seen in some
areas on Sat night, and perhaps again on Monday. Otherwise, the rest
of the extended looks uneventful, with temps near or slightly above
normal (which is still only in the low/mid 40s for highs).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

IFR/MVFR producing low cigs and mist/fog will continue across the
area tonight as low level moisture remains abundant. Satellite and
moisture analysis trends do support some aggressive clearing
kicking in by later Tuesday morning and afternoon, leaving behind
just some cirrus and perhaps a few shallow cu. Light winds through
this taf duration.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Generally light winds expected over the next 24 to 48 hours as
high pressure builds into the area. Light northerly winds will
continue into Wednesday before winds shift to a more NE/E
direction.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...KJF



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