Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 241522
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1022 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

Strong warm air advection continues as developing cold front
takes shape off to our west. Bands of showers/sprinkles impacting
the region, especially for areas north of the bridge. Much drier
low levels to the south preventing much of the precipitation from
reaching the surface. Not much activity just to our west, with
more concentrated area of showers in the post-frontal environment
back across the Dakota`s and northern Minnesota. Have adjusted
precip chances accordingly, fully expecting much of the area to
experience mostly dry conditions this afternoon, waiting on
arrival of better forcing later this afternoon and evening for
better shower chances. Lack of rain also means a bump up in high
temperatures is warranted. Some areas near Lake Michigan already
pushing 50 degrees. Expect fairly widespread upper 40s and lower
50s across the region this afternoon, with mid to even upper 50s
possible along and south of the Grand Traverse Bay region.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

...Becoming relatively mild today with increasing chances of rain
showers...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...High pressure has shifted SE of Michigan
early this morning while low pressure continues to develop just
north of Minnesota. Southerly flow continues to strengthen across
the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Western Great Lakes region
between these two systems...marking the beginning of strong WAA set
to take place today across our area. Initial moistening of low
levels along the leading edge of the warm front is producing a small
area of scattered light (mainly) rain showers across Eastern Upper
and far NW Lower Michigan attm where temps are already in the mid
30s to around 40 degrees. The rest of our CWA remains dry and partly
cloudy with temps in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Low level WAA/southerly flow will continue to strengthen across our
entire CWA throughout today...boosting afternoon high temps into the
upper 40s and lower 50s (normal high temps are in the 30s). Deep
moisture surging northward along and ahead of the approaching cold
front will lead to increasing POPs from NW to SE across our CWA
today and tonight. Cold front will arrive in our far NW CWA this
evening...pushing SE of our CWA late tonight. Greatest chance of
precip will occur during the evening along and just ahead of the
front. Temp profiles still suggest precip type will be almost all
liquid...with the exception of a little light snow and/or sleet
mixing in with the rain during the onset very early this morning
across our northern CWA...and again very late tonight as CAA begins
in the wake of the cold front. Low temps tonight will only fall into
the mid to upper 30s...so do not expect any travel problems tonight
as colder air begins to sweep in the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

...Turning colder for the weekend with some light showers...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...A secondary cold front will drop south
from Lake Superior during the day Saturday, on the heels of Friday
night`s departing cold front. A corresponding 500mb wave will cross
northern Michigan during the day, quickly replaced by weak ridging
at the surface and aloft for Saturday night. A clipper system will
then race across southern Ontario during the day on Sunday with yet
another cold front dropping across northern Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Lingering precip chances on Saturday and
again on Sunday.

Despite an overall drier airmass building in behind Friday night`s
cold front, there will be some lingering moisture trapped in the
boundary layer on Saturday. This, combined with NW flow and 850mb
temperatures steadily falling through the day (down to -9 to -13C by
evening), will lead to lake effect showers developing after
daybreak. Forcing doesn`t look all that impressive. Some modest
upsloping combined with mid level forcing from the 500mb shortwave,
generally weakening by late afternoon/evening. Will continue with
chance PoPs for now. Temperatures will fall through the day,
initially allowing for rain showers in the lower elevations with
snow or a rain/snow mix over eastern Upper and interior northern
Lower, eventually transitioning to just snow as the low levels cool.
Influx of drier air will strip out most remaining low level moisture
late afternoon into evening, leading to diminishing lake effect
chances. Should be light activity overall with minimal QPF and
snowfall. Another breezy day, perhaps leading to patchy blowing snow
over parts of eastern Upper.

Another cold front and mid-level energy associated with a clipper
system over Ontario will brush eastern Upper with additional
rain/snow shower chances on Sunday. Again, very light precip amounts
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

High impact weather potential...Minimal.

High pressure over the region will allow for quiet weather Sunday
night into Monday, with temperatures gradually warming heading into
Tuesday. Another clipper system will pass by north of the forecast
area, with a trailing cold front ushering in a cool down for mid
week along with small precip chances. A developing system ejecting
out of the Plains looks to impact the region by Thursday, though
timing, location, and intensity details have yet to be pinned down.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 600 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

LLWS will continue to impact all Northern Lower Michigan TAF sites
today into this evening as low level southerly flow continues to
strengthen ahead of an approaching cold front. Chances of rain
showers will increase from NW to SE today into this evening as
deep moisture surges northward along and ahead of the cold front.
VFR conditions will persist into this evening before deteriorating
to MVFR/IFR later tonight behind the cold front. S/SW surface
winds of 15 to 25 kts with higher gusts will shift to the NW
behind the front.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

Winds and waves will reach gale warning/SCA criteria across all of
our nearshore areas today and this evening as southerly flow
continues to strengthen ahead of an approaching cold front. The
front will sweep thru Michigan this evening. Winds will shift to the
NW in the wake of the cold front and will continue to reach SCA
criteria late tonight...Saturday and Saturday night as CAA commences.
Chances of rain showers will increase from NW to SE today into this
evening along and ahead of the cold front. Precip will transition to
NW flow lake effect rain/snow showers on Saturday.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ345>347.
     GALE WARNING until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ348-349.
LM...GALE WARNING until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MB
NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MR



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