413
AXNT20 KNHC 072313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jun 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and Hispaniola: Divergent flow
aloft and abundant tropical moisture surging northward continues
to generate a large area of heavy showers and thunderstorms
affecting the Gulf of Honduras, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Jamaica,
Hispaniola and the Bahamas. Dangerous lightning, rough seas,
gusty winds and low visibility are likely ongoing in these
regions. The soils remain saturated, therefore, it is possible
that more heavy rain may lead to flash flooding and mudslides,
especially in mountainous terrain. Mariners should exercise
caution as these conditions are forecast to continue through the
weekend. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts from the local
weather forecast offices for detailed information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic, analyzed with axis
along 32W and S of 11N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers
are noted along the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from
01N to 12N with axis near 43W, moving westward at about 10 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
05N to 12N and between 40W and 50W.

A tropical wave is just E of Brazil, extending from 01N to 11N
with axis near 52W, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered
showers are noted along the axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean S of 14N with axis
near 75W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant deep
convection is occurring in the Caribbean Sea associated with it.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 06N23W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves described above, numerous
moderate isolated strong convection is evident from 06N to 09N
between 34W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin between weak
surface ridging extending SW across Florida and the Straits, and
lower pressures over Mexico and the western Gulf. This pattern is
resulting in light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate
seas. Hazy skies continue across the western Gulf and Bay of
Campeche due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico and western
Central America. Reduced visibilities are noted across coastal
observation sites in the western and southern Gulf.

For the forecast, weak pressure gradient will support mainly gentle
to moderate winds the next several days. Winds will pulse to
fresh speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoon
and evening hours. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over
Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next
couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times,
mainly over the SW Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
the heavy rainfall event in the NW Caribbean and Hispaniola.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and
lower pressures in northern South America result in moderate to
fresh SE winds across the eastern, central and NW Caribbean. Seas
in these waters are slight to moderate with the highest seas being
in the central and eastern portions of the basin.

For the forecast, the mid to upper level trough extending from the E
Gulf of Mexico to just E of the Bahamas will shift E-NE across
the Atlantic through the weekend, which will support showers and
thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean, the Windward Passage and
Hispaniola through the weekend. A second upper level trough may
extend this shower activity over the NW Caribbean through early
next week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the
central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period,
except locally strong winds pulsing tonight and Sat night.
Moderate to fresh SE winds are also forecast for the NW
Caribbean most of the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level diffluent flow and abundant tropical moisture are
supporting scattered moderate convection over Bahamas and the W
Atlantic W of 63W. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the
influence of a 1020 mb high centered SE of Bermuda, which is
supporting gentle to moderate SE winds, except in the areas of
strong tstms.

Farther east, a cold front extends from a low N of the area near
32N38W to 25N46W then becomes a trough to 24N57W. Moderate to
fresh SW winds are occurring east of these features to 35W and
north of 27N. Seas are 4-7 ft in the area described.

A 1012 mb low pres is near the Canary Islands in the NE Atlantic,
but no significant convection is noted near the boundary.
Moderate N-NE winds and seas of 4-5 ft are evident behind the
front. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the deep layer trough will continue to
support showers and tstms across the Great Bahama Bank and the Bahamas
offshore waters through Sun. High pressure centered SE of Bermuda
is forecast to shift slowly E-NE through the weekend enabling a
weak frontal boundary to move into the far NW waters Sat. The
front will stall and lift north of the area Sun as high pressure
builds back in across the area.

$$
ERA