789
AXNT20 KNHC 092316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jun 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and SW N Atlantic: Abundant
tropical moisture surging northward combined with a persistent
mid to upper level trough, now extending over the NW Bahamas and
the NW Caribbean, continues to generate a large area of showers
and thunderstorms across parts of the NW Caribbean, and portions
of the Bahamas. Dangerous lightning, strong gusty winds, rough
seas and low visibility are likely ongoing within this convective
activity over these areas, including also Cuba and the Cayman
Islands. Cuba continues to report locally heavy rain. Saturated
soils over the Greater Antilles may lead to flash flooding and
mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. Mariners should
exercise caution as these conditions are forecast to continue
through at least mid week in the NW Caribbean, with the heaviest
rains likely impacting western Cuba and Florida. Please refer to
bulletins and forecasts from your local weather forecast offices
for detailed information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 49W, south of 11N, and moving westward
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted on either
side of the wave axis and mainly N of 07N.

A tropical wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt across the SE
Caribbean with axis along 66W, south of 12N. The wave is enhancing
convection over parts of Venezuela.

A tropical wave is moving slowly across the SW Caribbean. its
axis is along 78W, south of 14N. The wave, combined with EPAC
monsoon trough, is helping to induce scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms over the SW Caribbean, including
coastal regions from Colombia to Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains over Africa. The ITCZ extends from
the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N30W to 06N45W to
09N60W. In addition to convection described in the TROPICAL
WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is within about 150
nm N of the ITCZ between 24W and 30W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection can be found from 06N to 10N between
40W and 47W, and from 06N to 11N between 52W and 59W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak ridge dominates the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1015 mb high
pressure located near SE Louisiana. Under the influence of this
system, mainly light to gentle winds prevail with seas of 1 to 3
ft. Medium concentration of smoke, due to ongoing agricultural
fires, persists over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche
creating hazy conditions. Observations along the coast of Mexico
indicate reduced visibilities of 4 nm or less.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will support mainly
gentle to moderate winds most of the forecast period. Moderate
to fresh S to SE winds will develop over the E half of the basin
toward the end of the week. Otherwise, hazy conditions due to
agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue
for at least the next couple of days, reducing visibility to
around 3 nm at times, mainly over the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about heavy
rainfall in the NW Caribbean.

Satellite derived wind data indicate moderate to fresh trades
across most of the basin, except in the SW Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras where mainly light and variable winds are noted. Seas
are 5 to 8 ft over the central Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft
elsewhere with the exception of the SW Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras where seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range. Low-topped trade
wind showers are over the eastern Caribbean while convection
continues to flare-up W of 80W.

For the forecast, a mid to upper level trough will support showers
and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean through this evening.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the central and
eastern Caribbean through the forecast period, except locally
strong winds pulsing at night. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE
winds are forecast for the NW Caribbean most of the forecast
period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on heavy
rainfall over the western Atlantic. A band of multilayer clouds,
with possible embedded showers, extends from the Bahamas eastward
across the Atlantic waters from 20N and 30N and all the way to
near the Canary Islands. Strong westerly winds aloft are
transporting this cloudiness.

High pressure dominates most of the Atlantic forecast waters with
the main center of 1021 mb located near 32N45W. Light to gentle
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are seen under the influence of this
system N of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are
blowing between the W coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands.
Seas there are in the 4 to 6 ft range. S of 20N, gentle to moderate
trade winds are observed with seas of 4 to 7 ft. A stationary front
runs from 31N27W to 22N50W. A few showers are along the frontal
boundary.

For the forecast W of 55W, a ridge will prevail roughly along
25N through Thu, then gradually shift northward through the end of
the week. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds will develop over the
NE Florida offshore waters this evening through the middle of the
week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are expected on either
side of the ridge, with light to gentle winds along the ridge
axis.

$$
GR