854
AXNT20 KNHC 091106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jun 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and SW N Atlantic: Abundant
tropical moisture surging northeastward combined with a trough
aloft continues to generate a large area of scattered heavy
showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean, and portions of
the Bahamas. Dangerous lightning, strong gusty winds, rough seas
and low visibility are likely ongoing over the NW Caribbean and in
the vicinity of Andros Island. Saturated soils over the Greater
Antilles may lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous terrain. Mariners should exercise caution as these
conditions are forecast to continue through mid week in the NW
Caribbean, with the heaviest rains likely impacting western Cuba
and Florida. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts from the
local weather forecast offices for detailed information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 46W, south of
11N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed from 06N to 11N between 44W and
52W.

A tropical wave is in the SE Caribbean Sea along 63W, south of
14N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
ongoing in its vicinity.

A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean Sea along 78W, south of
14N, and moving westward at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is S of 13N between 75W and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 09N17W.
The ITCZ extends from 09N17W to 05N30W to 06N45W and then from
06N47W to 09N60W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical wave over the central Atlantic, scattered moderate
convection is from 04N to 13N between 15W and 25W, and from 06N to
12N between 51W and 59W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is from 02N to 07N between 28W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure of 1019 mb is centered over the NE Gulf while
lower pressures dominate the western half of the basin with a
surface trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh winds are
associated with this trough over the E Bay of Campeche. Gentle to
moderate SE winds dominate elsewhere along with slight seas.
Otherwise, hazy conditions persist in the western Gulf and Bay of
Campeche waters due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico and
western Central America. Observation sites continue to report
reduced visibilities along the Bay of Campeche coast.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly
gentle to moderate winds most of the forecast period. Moderate to
fresh S to SE winds are forecast to develop over the E half of the
basin Thu into Fri as the pressure gradient tightens between
surface ridging over the SW N Atlantic and a developing surface
trough that will extend from the E Bay of Campeche to the Tampa
Bay adjacent waters. Otherwise, hazy conditions due to
agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue
for at least the next couple of days, reducing visibility to
around 3 nm at times, mainly over the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about heavy
rainfall in the NW Caribbean.

Broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic
extends into the E Caribbean Sea with associated pressure gradient
resulting in fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south-
central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to
fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are occurring in the
north-central, eastern and NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, a mid to upper level trough will support
showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean through this
evening, including Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. A second upper
level trough is forecast to amplify and extend this shower and
tstms activity over the NW Caribbean through the middle of next
week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the central and
eastern Caribbean through the forecast period, except locally
strong winds pulsing at night through Thu. Moderate to fresh SE
winds are forecast for the NW Caribbean most of the forecast
period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on heavy
rainfall over the western Atlantic.

Surface ridging centered over the central Atlantic dominates the
subtropical and portion of the tropical Atlantic, sustaining
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds south of 20N and west of
35W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere in the basin,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a deep layer trough will support
showers and tstms over the Bahamas offshore waters through this
evening. A stationary front along northern Florida will approach
the far NW waters today and then lift north of the area Mon
evening as high pressure builds back in across the area. Moderate
to fresh S to SW winds will develop over the NE Florida offshore
waters this evening as the pressure gradient tightens between the
subtropical ridge and the front. These winds will continue to
affect the offshore waters N of 27N W of 65W through Wed morning
as a cold front moves across the waters N of the area Tue morning
before lifting farther north on Wed.

$$
Ramos