872
AXNT20 KNHC 081707
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jun 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and SW N Atlantic: Diffluent
flow aloft and abundant tropical moisture surging northeastward
continues to generate a large area of scattered heavy showers and
thunderstorms across the Bahamas and the NW Caribbean, including
Cuba and adjacent waters. Dangerous lightning, rough seas, gusty
winds and low visibility are likely ongoing in these regions.
Scattered moderate convection is currently from 18N to 22N between
77W and 84W. In Trinidad, Cuba, 3 inches of rain was reported in
the last 24 hours. The soils remain saturated over the Greater
Antilles, therefore, it is possible that more heavy rain may lead
to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous
terrain. Mariners should exercise caution as these conditions are
forecast to continue through the weekend. Please, refer to
bulletins and forecasts from the local weather forecast offices
for detailed information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W from 11N southward, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 10N
between 38W and 45W.

An Atlantic tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands is
along 59W, from 14N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 10N to 12N between 56W and 61W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, from 14N southward, moving
west at 5-10 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N16W to 06N23W. The ITCZ
then extends from 06N23W to 07N37W, with a second segment from 06N44W
to 09N54W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the
ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A benign stationary front is along the Florida Panhandle in the
far NE Gulf of Mexico. A weak surface trough is just offshore the
Yucatan Peninsula. Light to gentle winds with 1-3 ft seas prevail
across the Gulf, under a relaxed pressure gradient.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly
gentle to moderate winds the next several days. Winds will pulse
to fresh speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Hazy conditions due to agricultural
fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least
the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at
times, mainly over the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about heavy
rainfall in the NW Caribbean and a description of ongoing
convection.

The pressure gradient between subtropical Atlantic high pressure
and lower pressure over Colombia and Venezuela is supporting
fresh to locally strong trades in the central Caribbean, with 5-7
ft seas. Satellite altimeter data from earlier this morning
indicates that seas may locally reach 8 ft. In the eastern and
western Caribbean, trades are moderate to locally fresh, with 3-5
ft seas. Winds may be higher in Atlantic passages between the
Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast, a mid to upper level trough will support
showers and thunderstorms through the weekend across the NW
Caribbean, including Cuba and the Windward Passage. A second upper
level trough may extend this shower activity over the NW
Caribbean through early next week. Moderate to fresh trades will
prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean through the
forecast period, except locally strong winds pulsing tonight as
well as Mon through Wed nights. Moderate to fresh SE winds are
forecast for the NW Caribbean most of the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on heavy
rainfall.

Scattered moderate convection is from 23N to 25N between 65W and
69W. A frontal boundary extends from 31N32W to 22N52W. No
significant winds or seas are noted near the front. Weather across
the tropical Atlantic is guided by 1023 mb and 1022 mb high
pressures, each centered along 30N. Gentle to moderate trades
prevail across the basin, with 4-7 ft seas in open waters. Winds
may be higher in Atlantic passages between the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, a deep layer trough will support
showers and tstms across the SE Florida Seaboard, the Great Bahama
Bank and the Bahamas offshore waters through Sun. High pressure
centered SE of Bermuda is forecast to shift slowly E-NE through
the remainder weekend enabling a weak frontal boundary to move
into the far NW waters today. The front will stall and lift north
of the area Sun as high pressure builds back in across the area.

$$
Mahoney