966
AXNT20 KNHC 080559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Jun 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0435 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and Hispaniola: Divergent flow
aloft and abundant tropical moisture surging northward continues
to generate a large area of heavy showers and thunderstorms
affecting the islands in the western Greater Antilles. Dangerous
lightning, rough seas, gusty winds and low visibility are likely
ongoing in these regions. The soils remain saturated, therefore,
it is possible that more heavy rain may lead to flash flooding and
mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. Mariners should
exercise caution as these conditions are forecast to continue
through the weekend. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts from
the local weather forecast offices for detailed information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic along 33W, south of
11N, and moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed from 01N to 10N and
between 27W and 40W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 45W, south of
11M, and moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 11N and between 40W and 48W.

Another tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 54W,
south of 12N and moving westward at about 10 kt. A few showers
are seen near the trough axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean along 76W, south of
14N and moving westward at about 10 kt. No significant deep
convection is occurring in the Caribbean Sea associated with it.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 08N21W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N21W to 06N32W, then from 06N34W to 06N44W
and then from 06N45W to 06N53W. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 04N to 09N and east of 18W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary cold front is along the northern coast of the Gulf of
Mexico. However, no deep convection is noted near this boundary.
The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic that extends weakly westward and
across Florida. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas
of 2-4 ft are occurring in the Bay of Campeche, while moderate or
weaker winds and slight seas prevail in the remainder of the Gulf.

Hazy skies persist across the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche
due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico and western Central
America. Reduced visibilities are noted across coastal observation
sites in the western and southern Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly
gentle to moderate winds the next several days. Winds will pulse
to fresh speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoon
and evening hours. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over
Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next
couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times,
mainly over the SW Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
the heavy rainfall event in the NW Caribbean and Hispaniola.

A subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends into the
Caribbean Sea, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions
outside of the NW Caribbean. The pressure gradient between this ridge
and lower pressures in northern South America result in fresh to
strong easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean, with the
highest winds occurring off northern Venezuela based on a recent
scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft.
Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 3-6 ft are found in
the eastern and NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds
and slight seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a mid to upper level trough extending from the E
Gulf of Mexico to just E of the Bahamas will shift E-NE across the
Atlantic through the weekend, which will support showers and
thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean, the Windward Passage and
Hispaniola through the weekend. A second upper level trough may
extend this shower activity over the NW Caribbean through early
next week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the
central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period, except
locally strong winds pulsing tonight and Sat night. Moderate to
fresh SE winds are also forecast for the NW Caribbean most of the
forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level diffluent flow and abundant tropical moisture are
supporting scattered moderate convection over Bahamas and the SW
North Atlantic, especially west of 62W. The remainder of the
SW North Atlantic is dominated by a 1023 mb high pressure system
over the central Atlantic, supporting gentle to moderate SE
winds, except in the areas of strong thunderstorms.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N38W to 27N41W, where it
becomes a stationary front to 23N52W. A few showers are noted near
the boundary axis. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and seas of
4-6 ft from the front to 30W and north of 28N. The pressure
gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in
the deep tropics result in moderate to fresh easterly winds and
seas of 4-6 ft south of 20N and east of 30W. Fresh to locally
strong northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are occurring from 15N
to 21N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, deep layer trough will support showers
and tstms across the Great Bahama Bank and the Bahamas offshore
waters through Sun. High pressure centered SE of Bermuda is forecast
to shift slowly E-NE through the weekend enabling a weak frontal
boundary to move into the far NW waters Sat. The front will stall
and lift north of the area Sun as high pressure builds back in
across the area.

$$
Delgado