942
FXUS61 KBGM 121841
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
241 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly build into the region today clearing
out the stubborn clouds. A cold frontal passage on Friday will
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure with
more summerlike weather builds into the region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
1220 pm update...

Thick low clouds remain across the eastern two thirds of the CWA
still. Increased cloud cover there and lowered hourly and max
temperatures.

920 am update...

Lowered hourly temperatures mainly this morning. Highs changed
little. Cloudy skies continue over most of the area this
morning. It will take into afternoon before this starts to break
up and move east. Low level flow is still from the northwest
with cold air. The upper level trough has made it east to
eastern NY and New England. Still expecting the day to end
partly cloudy to clear except maybe in the far east such as
Oneonta and Delhi east.

previous discussion...
Removed any mention of fog with the sunrise update, discussion
below.

High pressure will slowly build into the region today. Stratus has
been very slow to lift and burn off across our region thanks in part
to a departing upper level low. Current thinking is the stratus will
burn off later this morning. With more in the way of sunshine
today temperatures should get into the 70`s.

Tonight with clearer skies and light winds patchy fog can not be
ruled out once again overnight. However, the winds look to be
slightly higher as weak southerly flow becomes realized. This should
also keep overnight lows from falling much below the 50-55 degree
range as well. High pressure looks to remain in place Thursday as
well with more summerlike conditions thanks to southerly flow on the
backside of the high. Most locations should get into the 80`s for
highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...

Friday is looking a little better today for severe
thunderstorms in the late morning into the early afternoon. The
500 mb trough has slowed some allowing for better timing in our
area for CAPE availability as well as good shear. CAPE will
still be on the lower end, with only around 500 to 1000 J/kg of
Surface based cape developing ahead of the approaching surface
trough. 0-6 km shear is still good, around 50 knots in the late
morning into early afternoon with most of the shear above 1 km
so hail and wind will be the main concern with any stronger
storms that develop. The shear vector looks to be parallel to
the trough so storm mode will quickly become linear after
initiation so the hail threat will likely be early on with wind
becoming the primary threat shortly after convective initiation.
With the parallel flow, there is a minor concern for training
storms but the speed of the trough will limit rainfall amounts
so probability of flash flooding is low.

Storms will move out of here quickly in the mid to late
afternoon with cool and dry air advecting in Friday night into
Saturday. With the dry air in place and the trough axis east of
the region Saturday, clear skies will help warm things up
despite the cooler air aloft. The afternoon will be breezy with
deeper mixing. Saturday night will be one last cool night with
high pressure and clear skies before ridging really starts to
build in.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM Update...

The long term is looking spicy with strong ridging building in
with hot temperatures and dew points rising into the mid 60s to
low 70s. Both EPS and NAEFS ensemble means have 500 mb heights
rising above 590 dm with is over 2 standard deviations above
climatology. Overnight lows will not be cooling off much with
the high dew points with lows struggling to fall below 70 after
Sunday. Heat indexes next week will likely be rising well into
the 90s so heat headlines are looking more likely. Some
uncertainty exist with chances of precipitation as this amount
of heat and humidity usually leads to at least some afternoon
convection despite the strong high pressure. There is also the
chance of MCS`s developing in the plains and progressing through
if the top of the ridge sags south at all early next but left
precipitation chances to late afternoons only for now.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
1240 pm update...

VFR this afternoon into Thursday afternoon. Skies will clear
later today but valley fog shouldn`t be a problem. Boundary
layer winds are 15 to 20 mph.

This afternoon west winds at around 5 kts. Tonight winds light
and variable under 5 kts. Thursday southwest winds at 5 to 10
kts.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon...Mainly VFR.

Thursday night through Friday night...Restrictions possible in
showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms, highest
chances Friday afternoon.

Saturday through Monday morning...mainly VFR.

Monday afternoon...Restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG/TAC
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...TAC