020
FXUS61 KBGM 100721
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
321 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Additional scattered showers will be possible today. Drier
conditions will arrive Monday evening, and will last through
most of the week. A warm up is expected to start Tuesday, with
temperatures returning to above normal by Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 AM Update:

Cyclonic flow continues today, but the stronger forcing will be
shifted east towards New England. The trailing edge of a
shortwave trough could kick off a few isolated showers today,
mainly across Central NY, but otherwise it will be a mainly dry
day. Plenty of lingering low level moisture trapped beneath an
inversion will keep skies mostly cloud, but some partial
sunshine is possible in Northeast PA to the Catskills. With 850mb
temperatures only around +5C, it will be rather cool for June
standards with highs only in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Some
of the higher elevations of Central NY may not even get out of
the upper 50s for highs.

Any lingering showers will dissipate this evening with the loss
of diurnal heating. Lingering low-level moisture will keep skies
mostly cloudy, but if a few breaks in the clouds manage to
occur, some patchy valley fog will be possible. Lows are
expected to be in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Tuesday will be the final day under the influence of the
stubborn upper level trough. Therefore, a few isolated showers
cannot be ruled out, mainly east of I-81. Elsewhere, it will be
mainly dry with partly sunny skies. Temperatures will remain a
bit below normal, but will be several degrees warmer than today.
Highs are expected to be in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 PM Update...

An upper trough gradually departing the area Tuesday can lead to a
couple of showers popping up in the afternoon over the Catskills and
Poconos, otherwise, it will be a quiet day with some sunshine.
Temperatures will still be running below average, but not a cool as
Monday with highs from the mid 60s to near 70 degrees. Lows will be
from the mid 40s to the low 50s at night. High pressure at the
surface and aloft builds in Tuesdsay night and is expected to remain
in control through Wednesday night promoting dry conditions.
Wednesday will be a pleasantly warm day under partly to mostly skies
and with winds becoming WSW, temperatures return to the mid and
upper 70s. Wednesday night won`t be quite as chilly with lows in the
mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
250 PM Update...

The warming trend continues Thursday into Friday as southwesterly
flow remains in place and temperatures range from the upper 70s to
the mid 80s with some valley locations hitting the upper 80s.

As the upper level ridge aloft begins to shift east and the flow
becomes more zonal, there is a slight chance of a shower Thursday,
mainly over north-central NY, with a weak shortwave passing near the
area, otherwise a partly sunny day is expected. Friday into Friday
night will be the next chance of showers and thunderstorms, however
there are some timing differences with the next upper trough and
associated surface cold front that is expected to move through. The
12Z run of the GFS has come in slower with the cold frontal passage
than the 00z run, coming more in line with the 00Z Euro and 12Z
Canadian favoring later in the afternoon or evening, but this will
be monitored. PWATs do look to top out around 1.50 inches across the
area, so there could be some embedded heavier downpours. Drier air
is expected to move back in for the weekend in the wake of the front
with a brief dip in high temperatures Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lingering low level moisture continues to bring low clouds to
much of Central NY, with some occasional breaks. Ceiling
restrictions will mainly be MVFR to Fuel Alternate, but
occasional IFR ceilings will be possible as well, especially at
KBGM, KITH, and KRME. IFR restrictions ease by late morning, but
lingering MVFR to Fuel Alternate restrictions are expected to
lingering through most of the day and even into the evening.

KAVP likely remains VFR the entirety of the period, although
brief MVFR ceiling restrictions cannot be ruled out early this
morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Restrictions possible in scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...BJG