340
FXUS61 KBGM 090729
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
329 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving disturbance will bring a period of rain showers
to the region early this morning. There will be a brief break
from the showers later in the morning, however they will return
to Central New York Sunday afternoon, while Northeast
Pennsylvania remains dry. Drier conditions will arrive Monday
evening, and will last through most of the week. Temperatures
will also become more summer like by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1235 AM Update:

The forecast remains on track and no significant changes were
necessary. Just made some minor tweaks to hourly temperatures
for the overnight/early morning hours.

950 PM Update...

Forecast remains mostly on-track. There are a few sprinkles
falling north of the NYS Thruway corridor, and although this is
mostly VIRGA, decided to put in a slight chance for showers in
this area. Also, fine-tuned timing of rain showers overnight
based on latest CAMs.

620 PM Update...

Clouds are pushing in a little faster than previously forecast,
so updated cloud cover based on latest METSAT and observations.
Also made some slight adjustments to PoP for this evening and
through Sunday morning. Latest CAMs highlight rain showers
across Central NY and into the Southern Tier overnight and the
boundary doesn`t push southward into NE PA until later in the
day on Sunday.

Previous Discussion...
Dry conditions, cool temperatures, and breezy west to northwest
winds will continue through the remainder of the day. A fast-
moving upper level disturbance will approach the area tonight,
with showers breaking out before midnight along a developing
warm front across Central New York. The bulk of the steadier
rain will arrive after midnight as a sharp shortwave trough
rolls through, along with a weakly-defined surface trough. The
heaviest rain, close to a half inch, will fall north of the Twin
Tiers, with precip amounts tapering off as you head further
south of the PA line.

The back edge of the rain will reach western Finger Lakes by
dawn, and push east of the CWA by late morning. There may be a
few hours long dry spell, followed by additional lighter
showers as another weaker shortwave trough embedded in cyclonic
flow aloft rolls through the area. Weak instability may be
enough for some embedded thunderstorms. Showers will diminish
with the diurnal cycle Sunday night.

With mean longwave troughing staying in place, temperatures
through the period will remain seasonably cool, roughly 5 to 8
degrees below normal for highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM Forecast...

Showers exit the region during the evening, with some lingering
chances up in Oneida and Madison counties. Mostly northerly flow
on the west side of the positively tilted trough over New
England will keep the cold Canadian airmass over the region
during the overnight hours. Temperatures will be cool for June,
falling into the mid 40s for most. Some low 50s will remain in
the Mohawk and Wyoming valleys.

Tuesday will be warmer and dry for most. A mid-level ridge
builds in from the SW, but the exiting trough will have enough
influence to allow some pop up afternoon showers across the
Catskills and Poconos. Temps will climb into the mid 60s to low
70s across the region.

The upper level wind pattern will continue to be northerly over
the area Tuesday night, and with the mid-level ridge building in
and winds becoming light and skies clearing out, the cool
airmass will stick around. Lows will be slightly warmer, but
temps will still be in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Winds slowly shift to WSW during the day Wednesday as the ridge
continues to build into the region. A very lovely spring day is
in store for the region with seasonable highs in the mid to
upper 70s, partly cloudy skies and dry conditions. Wednesday
night will warmer than the past few nights as the ridge
continues to bring warm air into the region. Lows will be in the
mid to upper 50s with dry conditions expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
320 AM Forecast...

As the axis of the ridge slides east of the region on Wednesday
night and Thursday, SW flow will pump warm and moist air into
the CWA, pushing temps into the mid to upper 80s on Thursday.
Guidance begins to diverge here with the timing and positioning
of the next trough that will move in from Canada. A cold front
and rain showers/thunderstorms should push through the region
sometime Friday to Friday night. The GFS has a quicker solution
with a much more amplified trough while the Euro has a flatter
trough and slower solution. Given the uncertainty, NBM guidance
was used.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions to start the 06Z TAF period, but showers along
with MVFR to Fuel Alternate restrictions will be moving in as
the rest of the early morning hours progress. Some IFR
restrictions will be possible through mid-morning at KBGM,
KSYR, and KITH, although lower confidence at KITH and therefore
IFR restrictions were left out there for now. VFR conditions
gradually return by the late morning/early afternoon and will
remain that way through most of the rest of the TAF period.

There is also a low chance for isolated thunderstorms at the
Central NY terminals this afternoon, but this was left out of
the TAFs for now due to very low confidence.

Outlook...

Monday...Another round of showers may bring occasional
restrictions. Otherwise mainly VFR.

Monday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/MPK/MPH
NEAR TERM...BJG/MPK/MPH
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...BJG