811
FXUS61 KBGM 090152
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
952 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving disturbance will bring a period of rain showers
to the region late tonight into Sunday morning. There will be a
brief break from the showers in the morning, however they will
return to Central New York Sunday afternoon, while nearby
Pennsylvania stays dry. Drier conditions will arrive Monday
evening, and will last well into the week ahead. Temperatures
will also become more summer like by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

950 PM Update...

Forecast remains mostly on-track. There are a few sprinkles
falling north of the NYS Thruway corridor, and although this is
mostly VIRGA, decided to put in a slight chance for showers in
this area. Also, fine-tuned timing of rain showers overnight
based on latest CAMs.

620 PM Update...

Clouds are pushing in a little faster than previously forecast,
so updated cloud cover based on latest METSAT and observations.
Also made some slight adjustments to PoP for this evening and
through Sunday morning. Latest CAMs highlight rain showers
across Central NY and into the Southern Tier overnight and the
boundary doesn`t push southward into NE PA until later in the
day on Sunday.

Previous Discussion...
Dry conditions, cool temperatures, and breezy west to northwest
winds will continue through the remainder of the day. A fast-
moving upper level disturbance will approach the area tonight,
with showers breaking out before midnight along a developing
warm front across Central New York. The bulk of the steadier
rain will arrive after midnight as a sharp shortwave trough
rolls through, along with a weakly-defined surface trough. The
heaviest rain, close to a half inch, will fall north of the Twin
Tiers, with precip amounts tapering off as you head further
south of the PA line.

The back edge of the rain will reach western Finger Lakes by
dawn, and push east of the CWA by late morning. There may be a
few hours long dry spell, followed by additional lighter
showers as another weaker shortwave trough embedded in cyclonic
flow aloft rolls through the area. Weak instability may be
enough for some embedded thunderstorms. Showers will diminish
with the diurnal cycle Sunday night.

With mean longwave troughing staying in place, temperatures
through the period will remain seasonably cool, roughly 5 to 8
degrees below normal for highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
240 PM Update:

Another shortwave trough dropping south out of Canada will move
over the region Monday leading to additional spotty showers,
mainly over CNY, where PoPs are highest at 40-50%. Any likely
PoPs that NBM loaded in were removed given the spotty nature of
the precipitation and lack of moisture support with this system.
Showers are expected to dissipate quickly Monday evening with
the loss of daytime heating. It will be quite cool Monday with
high temperatures ranging from the low 60s to the low 70s.
Overnight lows will be from the mid 40s to the low 50s.

As this upper trough continues to slowly push east Tuesday,
there can be a pop up shower or two, mainly in the Catskills and
Poconos, otherwise, partly to mostly sunny skies are expected.
The trough finally moves east Tuesday night and high pressure
will build in both at the surface and aloft. Highs Tuesday range
from the upper 60s to the mid 70s, while lows range from the
upper 40s to the mid 50s Tuesday night under a mostly clear sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
240 PM Update:

With high pressure in control, dry conditions and rising
temperatures are expected Wednesday with some sunshine. Highs
are expected to be from the mid 70s to the low 80s. Thursday
looks to be largely dry as well, with just a slight chance of a
shower as a weak shortwave passes by. However, one thing of note
is the 12Z operational GFS has come in with a wetter solution
this day, but it has not been consistent the past couple of days
compared to the Euro and Canadian which support a largely dry
solution. Ensembles also support the idea of just a slight
chance of showers, but this is something to monitor. A better
chance of showers and thunderstorms returns Friday as the next
cold front approaches. Drier air is then expected to move back
in for the weekend.

The warming trend is expected to continue Thursday and Friday
with temperatures in the upper 70s to the mid 80s, and even a
few places potentially reaching the upper 80s. Overnight lows
will moderate as well Wednesday through Friday night in the 50s
and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expect VFR to continue through midnight with some mid level
clouds moving in this evening. An approaching disturbance and
weak developing warm front will cause showers to develop in an
east-west band across Central NY after 05Z, with the main band
of showers expected to arrive across the area between 08Z and
12Z, pulling out between 13-15Z. Showers will be steadiest and
visibilities lowest in NY, with brief showers expected at AVP
tomorrow morning.

Ceilings will lower rapidly with precip onset, bottoming out in
the MVFR-Fuel Alt range for most sites. After the rain pushes
through tomorrow morning there is a good chance for IFR ceilings
at ITH, ELM and BGM. VFR will prevail again by noon area-wide.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday...Another round of showers possible
Sunday evening and again during the day Monday, but with
scattered coverage. VFR likely prevalent, especially Sunday, but
with some brief minor restrictions possible.

Tuesday through Thursday...VFR likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK/MPH
NEAR TERM...MPK/MPH
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MPK/MPH