546
FXUS61 KBGM 040203
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1003 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures through the first half of the week with isolated
afternoon thunderstorms possible. Chances for more widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms increase in the latter half
of the week, as a slow moving system passes through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
1000 PM Update...

Minor adjustments made at this time. Increased cloud cover
prior to daybreak tomorrow with high clouds expected to move in
ahead of a weak shortwave. The rest of the forecast remains on
track.

650 PM Update...

Dried out much of the area for the rest of this evening with
little in the way of pop up showers developing late this
afternoon and evening and skies gradually clearing. The chance
for thunder seems very low tomorrow, so did remove any mention
of it prior to 18Z and limited it to a slight chance for the
rest of the afternoon.

125 PM Update...

Surface high pressure is over the area and although it is
fairly stable, a weak shortwave passes this afternoon and will
kick off a few isolated showers. Tonight, with the loss of
heating after sunset, any showers will quickly dissipate. There
may be some patchy fog early Tuesday morning, however this will
be dependent on cloud cover.

Weak waves within the ridge aloft will kick off more showers and
possibly an isolated thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon. MLCAPE is
modeled to be around 500 J/kg, however a strong cap at 700 mb
will be in place on Tuesday, which will limit the coverage of
showers. Temperatures will be warm and some spots will hit the
mid 80s. Tomorrow night, high pressure remains in control and
temperatures will remain warm overnight with lows only in the
low 60s to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM Update...

An approaching cold front from an upper-level low in Canada will
move into Central NY and NE PA Wednesday evening into Thursday,
bringing rain showers and cooling things down from the high-70s
to mid-80s Wednesday to the mid- to high-70s on Thursday. The
upper-level low will move southeastward into the region
Thursday, bringing more rain and chances for afternoon
thunderstorms. The Weather Prediction Center has our area in a
Marginal Risk for flash flooding (at least 5% risk of flash
flooding), mainly for Wednesday night through Thursday night as
the front moves through first Wednesday night, and as the upper-
level low swings down into our area Thursday evening. Across
Wednesday night through Thursday night, we`re expecting total
rainfall amounts to be a quarter to a half inch of rainfall
across Central NY and NE PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
215 PM Update...

The aforementioned upper-level low will become quasi-stationary
over our area heading into the weekend. Chances for rain showers
will last through the long-term, as well as chances for
thunderstorms increasing into the afternoon timeframe pretty
much every day in the long-term. Long-term guidance really
starts to differ over the weekend, where the center of the
upper-level low is different in each model, but the similar
theme of continuous chances for rain showers remains the same
across the entire weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through the evening hours tonight
before some areas of shallow fog are expected to develop,
mainly after 06-07Z and lasting through roughly 12Z. However,
confidence on the formation of fog is still low with little in
the way of showers this afternoon enhancing ground moisture,
but elevated dew points are in place with light winds and
continued clearing. However, model guidance does show some high
clouds moving back into the area around or just after when fog
is expected to begin to form ahead of an approaching weak
shortwave. ElM is expected to have the best chance of fog
formation and restrictions, but BGM, ITH and RME all have a
chance as well.

VFR conditions are expected much of tomorrow after 12Z with
isolated showers in the afternoon and perhaps a thunderstorm.
Winds are expected to be light out of the south-southwest.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers/storms during the
evening hours.

Wednesday...Low chance of showers/storms and associated
restrictions.

Wednesday night through Saturday...Increasing chance of
showers/storms and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...DK/MPK
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...DK/MPK