489
FXUS61 KBGM 031733
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
133 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Warm temperatures through the first half of the week with isolated
afternoon thunderstorms possible. Chances for more widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms increase in the latter half
of the week, as a slow moving system passes through the region.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

125 PM Update...

Surface high pressure is over the area and although it is
fairly stable, a weak shortwave passes this afternoon and will
kick off a few isolated showers. Tonight, with the loss of
heating after sunset, any showers will quickly dissipate. There
may be some patchy fog early Tuesday morning, however this will
be dependent on cloud cover.

Weak waves within the ridge aloft will kick off more showers and
possibly an isolated thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon. MLCAPE is
modeled to be around 500 J/kg, however a strong cap at 700 mb
will be in place on Tuesday, which will limit the coverage of
showers. Temperatures will be warm and some spots will hit the
mid 80s. Tomorrow night, high pressure remains in control and
temperatures will remain warm overnight with lows only in the
low 60s to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM Update

The weather pattern will be turning much more active and eventually
cooler in this timeframe, as a slow moving, nearly cut-off upper
level low approaches. It starts off quiet and warm Tuesday night,
with just an outside chance for a stray shower or storm...muggy
with lows in the upper 50s to mid-60s over the region.

The area will be under a transitioning weather pattern on Wednesday,
as there appears still be some modest upper level ridging over the
area. However,building moisture and instability along with an
incoming shortwave trough out ahead of the parent upper level low
could spark off scattered showers and t`storms. Still warm and humid
(sfc dew points 60-65) with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, except
mid-80s for Syracuse metro and Mohawk Valley region.

The first frontal boundary is progged to swing through the area
Wednesday night into Thursday. The exact timing remains somewhat
uncertain...but guidance is honing in on this period for a round of
steady rain and embedded thunderstorms, as MLCAPE of 300-600 J/Kg
will be possible. PWATs rise to around 1.50 to 1.75 inches, and warm
cloud layer reaches 10-11k ft; Wednesday night through mid-
morning Thursday. Again, there are minor timing differences
between the GFS, which hangs onto the deep moisture and
instability longer into the day on Thursday...and the ECMWF,
which drops PWATs, moisture and instability quickly from west to
east Thursday morning. Used blended (NBM) ensemble guidance for
the official forecast to account for these timing discrepancies
in the deterministic guidance. WPC does have out area
highlighted in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall (at least
5% risk of flash flooding) during this Wednesday through
Thursday morning time range...and this will be something to
monitor closely moving forward. With some partial clearing
expected at times on Thursday, daytime highs still reach the
mid-70s to lower 80s, with dew points gradually falling in the
afternoon, making it feel less humid.

The upper level low spins east, to a position near Toronto Thursday
night. With the loss of daytime heating and instability we are
expecting just a few rain showers around overnight, with more
comfortable lows in the 50s to near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
350 AM Update

This period will be dominated by a slow moving, redeveloping upper
level low/trough over the region. The low spins over western NY and
southern Ontario on Friday, putting our area under a broad cyclonic
southwesterly flow. Daytime heating and instability will allow
scattered to numerous showers to develop in the afternoon...with
isolated thunderstorms also possible. Not as warm, with highs in the
70s. Skies will be mostly sunny in the morning, but quickly becoming
partly sunny to mostly cloudy in the afternoon, under the influence
of the upper level low. Shower chances lower Friday night, with the
loss of instability. Seasonable with lows in the low to mid-50s.

By Saturday, there is good model agreement that the upper level low
will be right over us, or very close by. 1000-500mb thicknesses fall
into the low 550dm range, and 850mb temperatures are around +8C.
This will allow for more scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms to develop during the day. Below average temperatures,
with highs only in the upper 60s to lower 70s...except around 75 in
the Chemung and Wyoming Valleys. Much of the same for Sunday and
Monday, as our area remains under a broad upper level trough
pattern. This will lead to drier and partly cloudy conditions at
night...with  scattered to numerous showers developing for the
daytime hours and a slight chance for thunderstorms. Temperatures
are steady with highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s and lows 50 to 55.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through the day and into tonight.
There will be a chance for fog to develop late tonight, however
confidence remains low, as this will depend on lingering cloud
cover. BGM, ELM, ITH, and RME will have a chance for fog and
restrictions. Exact timing of fog and lowest restrictions are
uncertain and will require additional refining with future
updates.

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers/storms during
the afternoon and evening hours.

Wednesday...Low chance of showers/storms and associated
restrictions.

Wednesday night through Friday...Increasing chance of
showers/storms and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...MPK