722
FXUS61 KBGM 071909
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
309 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will affect the region this afternoon.
Quieter weather will prevail on Saturday, with most areas
avoiding showers. However, rain will return late Saturday night
into Sunday, lingering into Monday afternoon. Drier conditions
are expected Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
237 PM Update...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to move across the area this
afternoon. The stronger storms which produced some small hail
and wind gusts of around 35 to 45 mph have mostly weakened,
though a few gusts in this range will be possible over Otsego
and Delaware Counties in the next hour or so.

Otherwise, expect scattered showers, with just isolated thunder,
to persist, with a diurnal downtrend this evening. A fairly
right pressure gradient will result in steady west winds this
evening, which will limit or prevent valley fog formation.

Saturday is shaping up to not be so bad. The upper trough will
be lifting out, with even a hint of mid-level ridging developing
late in the afternoon. So a few showers may affect north-central
NY early in the day, with just an isolated shower or two
possible through the early afternoon, but for most, it`ll be a
dry day, with temperature recovering into the 70s.

A fairly strong shortwave trough will push into the area from
the west late Saturday night (after midnight) into Sunday
morning, with widespread showers moving through the area. QPF
amounts look to be fairly light, in the 0.20 to 0.40 inch
range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
305 PM Update:

A cold front and upper level shortwave trough are expected to
move through the area early Sunday with showers and in spots a
thunderstorm. With cyclonic flow persisting off the Great Lakes
and low heights above, additional diurnally driven scattered
showers are possible Sunday afternoon, mostly across CNY. A
rumble or two of thunder remains possible in the afternoon with
modest amounts of instability and borderline shear values. Much
of the area will be running below average temperature wise
Sunday with highs from the mid 60s to the low 70s. Areas north
of the Thruway can see lingering shower or two Sunday night
while the rest of the area is expected to dry out. Lows Sunday
night will range from the upper 40s to the mid 50s.

Another shortwave will drop down from the north and move into
the region Monday with additional scattered showers. PoPs are
expected to be highest across CNY (40-50%) before showers
dissipate Monday night. This feature will also reinforce below
average temperatures for the afternoon hours Monday with highs
in the low to mid 60s. A few valley locations may reach the
upper 60s. Widespread 40s are expected Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 AM Update:

As the shortwave trough slowly moves east Tuesday, there can be
an isolated shower that pops up, mainly over the Catskills,
then drier conditions are expected to return Wednesday as high
pressure builds in at the surface and aloft. The operational GFS
has trended drier this afternoon for Thursday, more in line
with the Euro and Canadian and their respected ensembles with
just a slight chance of a shower before our next cold front
looks to approach late in the week Friday.

Temperatures are expected to be gradually on the rise mid to
late week going from the 60s on Tuesday to the 70s and even low
80s in some places Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across all terminals through the morning
hours as fog at ELM should lift shortly after 8am. Another round
of afternoon rain showers will occur across the region. Guidance
is suggesting the best chance for thunderstorms will be at the
onset of showers in the late morning/early afternoon at
ITH/SYR/RME. MVFR conditions could occur in these storms, with
VSBY having the best chance of being impacted. Once the initial
storms pass, instability decreases and showers remain. BGM does
not have as high of a chance for TSRA so it was left out of the
TAFs but showers could bring MVFR conditions. AVP should see
some showers but confidence to put showers at the terminal was
too low so VCSH was used here.

Showers dissipate across the region by early evening except for
RME/SYR where late effect showers will continue over the area
through the overnight hours with MVFR ceilings. ITH could also
see some MVFR ceilings overnight as lake clouds reach the area.


Outlook...

Saturday through Monday...Occasional showers with brief
restrictions likely.

Tuesday...VFR likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...JTC/MPH