Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
523 FXUS63 KBIS 242345 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 645 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and snow showers central east, gradually tapering off from west to east this evening. Chance (30%) of showers and thunderstorms again in the southwest overnight. - Winds gusting to 45 mph in portions of south central North Dakota including parts of the James River Valley. A Wind Advisory is in effect until this evening. - Areas of frost over much of western and central North Dakota. - Active weather pattern continues with rain chances over much of the area through Monday, then again Thursday to Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 The wind advisory has been cancelled over the south central but remains in effect for the James River Valley. As of 6 PM winds were still gusting to 43 mph at Jamestown. Expect these winds to diminish a bit later this evening. Clouds were diminishing over western ND with some sunshine, but showers were over eastern Montana, and have already pushed into the southwest. Expect showers to move into the northwest in the next hour or so. There has been some lightening associated with this activity but there has been a decrease in lightning in the past 1-2 hours. Expect mainly scattered shower activity but a few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out this evening as this activity moves into western ND. In eastern portions of central ND, precipitation has ended over all but the far eastern portions of the CWA. Also, snow continues in and around the Turtle Mountains, but is expected to taper off this evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 The stacked low pressure system continues to slowly move east across the North Dakota Minnesota border. In our area, temperatures have remained much cooler than first forecasted in the central and north on the backside of the low. This is allowing snow to mix with the rain falling. The Turtle Mountains area has received around 6 inches of snow so far! A rain/snow mix has been reported in the southern James River Valley and into South Dakota as well. Our forecast challenge of the day has been this, where will the rain snow mix be the rest of the day? We have adjusted from the NBM to have a rain snow mix the rest of of the day where precipitation is falling. This area is between Bismarck and Jamestown, up to the Canadian Border and east. The Wind Advisory is still in effect west of the river until 23z, and east of the river until 01z. Although they will most likely be cancelled early as the tight pressure gradient is over the James River Valley right now and moving east. In the cyclonic flow around the upper low, showers and maybe a thunderstorm are possible across the west and southwest for a few hours tonight, about a 30 percent chance. Lows overnight across the area will dip into the mid-30s with light winds. A Frost Advisory has been issued until 13z Saturday for this reason. Localized lower elevations could drop near or below freezing. The rest of Saturday will be drier, with highs still slightly below average in the upper 60s and lower 70s. The Turtle Mountains will be 50 degrees or cooler, especially with the snow on the ground, so this could be over forecasted. Frost is most likely again Saturday night in the northeast with temperatures in the mid 30s again. The pattern aloft Saturday has a brief weak ridge moving through before another upper low and shortwave move in Sunday. Sunday will still be below average temperatures with showers and thunderstorms (non-severe) likely, moving west to east. The highest chances move to the east by 00z as the next ridge pushes into the west. The chances of rain look to continue all night and into Monday afternoon. This ridge will continue until Wednesday night when another big low digs south through the Pacific Northwest. This puts us back into the active southwest flow with plenty of diffluence aloft for thunderstorms through Friday. Temperatures all week will remain just below average as our cooler Spring continues into June. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Rain exiting the forecast area east, showers moving into the forecast area west. Low pressure over far northeast North Dakota will lift northeast this evening. Strong winds over eastern portions of central will diminish in the next 1-2 hours, including KJMS. Scattered MVFR ceilings will also exit this area this evening. Elsewhere, expect mostly low VFR conditions this evening with scattered showers moving into the west. Included a VCSH at KXWA and KDIK this evening. Patchy fog is possible later tonight in the west, but too much uncertainty at this time to include at any TAF site. A west to northwest surface flow is expected through tonight over the area. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight to 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ Saturday for NDZ001>005-009>013-018>023-025- 033>037-041-042-044>048-050-051. Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ036-037- 046>048-050-051. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...TWH