Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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650 FXUS64 KBMX 110607 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 107 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1020 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2024 The cold front has pushed south of Central Alabama and all rain chances have ended. Surface high pressure will build into the region through Tuesday with cooler and drier conditions. The temperature and dew point trends were running just short in the north, which means its cooler and drier, while southern locations are still transitioning. Our forecast lows north are already on the cold end of guidance and will leave there due to our trend. It will be a cool night, especially north, for June. Lows well into the 50s north and lower 60s south. The skies will be partly cloudy as cirrus will continue drifting overhead. These high clouds continue on Tuesday with high temperatures in the 80s. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 134 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2024 Tonight. Broad ridging will continue to build over much of the Plains while the longwave trough becomes positioned further to the northeast with time. Strong and expansive surface high pressure centered across the Western Great Lakes will build further southward overnight while the cold front moves south along the Northern Gulf Coast. Mostly clear skies will be found for all but the far southern counties where partly cloudy skies may persist for a longer time. A few lingering showers and a stray storm also may remain across our far southeast counties through the evening, followed by a return to dry conditions across the entire area after midnight. Due to the cooler temperatures and light winds overnight, some patchy fog may develop near and along river and lake areas before sunrise on Tuesday morning. Winds will be from the north at 2-4 mph. Low temperatures will range from the mid 50s far north to the low 60s far southeast. Tuesday. id-level ridging will build further into the region on Tuesday while the mid-level trough becomes positioned over the East Coast. The front to our south will become stationary across much of the Northern Gulf Coast while expansive surface high pressure extends from the Northeast southwest across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley Regions through the Mid-South Region. Mostly sunny skies are forecast areawide with winds from the north at 4-8 mph. High temperatures will range from the low 80s far northwest to around 90 southeast. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 210 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2024 As an upper-level ridge center approaches and then scoots across the Gulf Coast region later this week, high temperatures are forecast to climb 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals, topping out in the middle to upper 90s. Forecast soundings show relatively dry low levels so, daytime mixing, combined with non-southerly surface winds, looks to keep dew points in check at least. The upper-level ridge axis is progged to shift toward the Atlantic Seaboard early next week as a trough moves across the central CONUS. This setup should help guide an area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico toward the coastline. Flow around this feature should result in increasing PWATs/dew points early next week. While guidance varies on where the main plume of tropical rains will track, we should have some opportunity for showers and storms. 89^GSatterwhite && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period as drier air settles over the area. Cirrus will stream across the area with calm winds overnight. Northerly winds increase to 5-6kts Tuesday morning. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to remain above critical levels over the next few days. 20-foot winds should run at or less than 7 mph as well, from a northerly heading Monday through Wednesday. No rain is forecast through the week, aside from an isolated shower or storm south of Interstate 85. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 85 57 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 85 59 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 85 62 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 87 61 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 87 62 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 88 65 89 69 / 0 0 10 0 Montgomery 88 64 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 89 64 91 67 / 0 0 10 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...75 LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite AVIATION...14