378
FXUS64 KBMX 291038
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
538 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2024

High pressure builds in across the region today leading to mostly
clear skies for much of the day. A weak upper level shortwave will
push southeastward through the Mid-MS Valley late in the
afternoon/evening hours, which should lead to increasing clouds
tonight and a few isolated to scattered showers/storms in the far
western counties after midnight tonight. This trend continues into
Thursday as the shortwave continues to push through the Southeast.
Overall, thinking the antecedent relatively dry air mass and low
level ridging should temper the coverage of any thunderstorm
activity, but there`s enough signal to include at least 30% chance
for thunderstorms across the western portions of Central AL and 20-
30% elsewhere across much of the area.

25/Owen

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2024

We will remain in a largely mesoscale driven weather regime through
the long term portion of the forecast. Most POPs through the period
will be in the chance to slight chance category, as convective
systems to our west lose steam as they reach central Alabama. If we
were to pick out a period with somewhat enhanced rain chances, it
would be Saturday afternoon to Sunday. Otherwise, low confidence in
timing and placement of upper impulses leads to generally climo
level POPs. No extremes are anticipated in temperatures.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2024

VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours.
Generally light and variable winds will increase during the day
today to around 5-7kts out of the northwest before becoming light
and variable again generally after 00z.

25/Owen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions expected today with min RHs dropping near 30% for a
good portion of the area. Northwesterly winds should generally be
less than 7-10mph, but if we start to see increased mixing during
the day there could be a few wind gusts and RHs may drop lower.
Moisture begins to increase Thursday through Friday with min RHs
remaining near or above 50%.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     85  59  80  58 /   0  10  20  20
Anniston    86  60  81  59 /   0  10  20  20
Birmingham  87  64  80  63 /  10  10  20  20
Tuscaloosa  89  65  81  63 /  10  30  30  30
Calera      88  64  81  63 /  10  20  20  20
Auburn      86  64  81  63 /   0  10  10  20
Montgomery  89  66  83  66 /  10  10  10  20
Troy        89  66  85  64 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...25/Owen