297
FXUS64 KBMX 280812
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
312 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2024

Dry conditions expected today as high pressure build into the area
under northwesterly flow aloft. The main upper low slow shifts
through the Great Lakes region today through Wednesday with little
change in the overall synoptic pattern as we head into the middle
part of the week. Some guidance tries to bring in a weak upper
shortwave through the Mid-MS Valley during the day on Wednesday,
which could lead to some isolated showers and thunderstorms.
However, the probability is low given the ridge and drier air mass
in place. I`ve included 15-20% chance for rain/storms tomorrow
afternoon/evening in the far western counties, but otherwise most of
the area should remain rain-free.

25/Owen

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2024

Weather conditions in the long term look to be dominated by rather
progressive upper level flow, with several shortwaves zipping
through periodically. Difference in timing/placement and strength of
individual shortwaves among the various models leads to a somewhat
low confidence forecast. Looks like one wave approaches the area on
Friday, and another on Saturday, both if which could lead to periods
of slightly enhanced POPs. Otherwise, we may be entering a more
summertime weather regime, with daily diurnal convective chances
being driven by mesoscale processes not handled well by the long
range global models.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2024

VFR conditions expected for most sites through the period. The
exception will be ANB and potentially TOI where MVFR Vis is
expected between roughly 6z and 12z. Some guidance tries to spread
the fog into MGM, but confidence isn`t there right now to add it
into the TAF. Otherwise, mostly a diurnal wind forecast across the
area with light to variable winds increasing during the daytime
hours before decreasing again during the evening.

25/Owen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions expected today and tomorrow with Min RHs dropping
into the mid to upper 30% range. Northwesterly winds could be gusty
at times this afternoon before becoming light and variable during
the overnight periods. Moisture gradually increases as we go into
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     86  58  85  59 /   0   0  10  10
Anniston    87  60  85  61 /   0   0  10  10
Birmingham  89  64  86  65 /   0   0  10  10
Tuscaloosa  90  63  86  65 /   0   0  10  20
Calera      89  64  85  65 /   0   0  10  10
Auburn      88  65  85  65 /   0   0  10  10
Montgomery  91  64  87  66 /   0   0  10  10
Troy        90  64  88  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25/Owen
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...25/Owen