643
FXUS61 KBTV 101032
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
632 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system centered over southern Quebec
this morning will gradually weaken as it pulls away toward the
Gulf of St. Lawrence. A continued moist northwesterly flow will
bring abundant clouds today, along with scattered light rain
showers, especially during the morning hours today. The
influence of the upper low will gradually diminish with a trend
toward warmer and increasingly sunny conditions for the Tuesday
through Thursday time frame. Valley high temperatures should be
well into the 80s by Thursday. The next frontal system is
expected to arrive on Friday, with a chance for scattered showers
and thunderstorms to end the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 615 AM EDT Monday...Low-to-mid level cyclonic flow continues on
western periphery of closed upper low translating slowly newd toward
the Gulf of St. Lawrence. At 1015Z, a large band of light rain
shower activity extended from near KMSS ewd along the intl
border into the northern Champlain Valley and across far
northern VT. This band of light rain will continue sewd at 20-25
mph during the next 1-3 hours, bringing up to 0.10" of
additional rainfall. Highest PoPs around 70% are across far
n-central and northeastern VT through 14Z this morning. Appears
most of the rain shower activity will shift south and east of
the region by this afternoon, with chances for rain showers this
afternoon (30-40%) generally confined to s-central VT and Essex
County NY. Will see light SW winds shift W-NW this afternoon,
and lingering inversion layer will bring abundant stratus and
stratocu this morning, with just a few breaks possible this
afternoon. Overall pattern favorable for continued below average
temperatures, with highs generally in the mid-upper 60s in VT,
and only upper 50s to lower 60s across the Adirondacks and St.
Lawrence Valley of NY. These stratus should linger tonight, with
any breaks in the cloud cover leading to patchy fog overnight,
especially in the favored valley locations of central/ern VT.
Overnight lows generally in the mid-upper 40s, except lower 50s
for the Champlain Valley region.

On Tuesday, we should finally see the upper low weaken and move far
enough eastward that it loses its influence on our weather. Morning
low clouds and fog will gradually dissipate by late morning/noon,
with increasing afternoon sunshine and light NW wind conditions.
Temperatures will begin moderating as well, with highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s, and possible close to 75F in the CT River Valley
area. Carried just a 20-30% chance of a rain shower Tuesday
afternoon, mainly across the higher terrain areas with shallow
instability developing with peak daytime heating. Any rain
shower activity will quickly dissipate during the early evening
hours with onset of diurnal cooling cycle.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 342 AM EDT Monday...Any showers during the day Tuesday will
wane Tuesday night with a loss of instability. Overnight low
temperatures look to be seasonable Tuesday night, generally in the
low 50s with parts of the Adirondacks dropping into the 40s although
if skies are able to clear temperatures may be even cooler.

Conditions trend drier by Wednesday with an upper level trough
departing and surface high pressure building overhead. Some
lingering shortwave energy will allow for some diurnally driven
showers Wednesday afternoon, primarily across the Northeast Kingdom,
but there is still some uncertainty regarding this feature and if it
materializes. 925mb temperatures look to warm to 16-18C, which
supports daytime high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday night, with
temperatures generally in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 342 AM EDT Monday...After a brief period of drier conditions,
chances for precipitation return Thursday night into Friday as a
cold front passes through the region. Guidance has started to come
into better agreement regarding this feature, with both
deterministic and ensemble guidance showing the greatest potential
for precipitation on Friday although the feature is still a few days
away. Temperatures will warm for the later half of the week, with
highs during the day on Thursday in the 80s. Temperatures will be
warm during the day Friday, but showers will keep things a few
degrees cooler than Thursday. Increasing moisture will keep
overnight lows warm ahead of the cold front, only dropping into the
60s. In the wake of the frontal passage, drier and more seasonable
conditions look to return for the weekend with upper level ridging
and surface high pressure building.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...A continued moist W-NW flow will bring
occasional light rain shower activity, especially to the
northern TAF locations through the remainder of this morning.
Ceilings are not expected to change significantly thru the
remainder of this morning, with KSLK likely remaining IFR thru
16Z or so, and ceilings in the MVFR category at KMSS/KEFK. The
remaining TAF locations will see ceilings hovering near 3 kft
thru the remainder of the morning, with HIR TRRN OBSCD. May see
some marginal improvement in ceilings during the aftn hours.
A few additional showers are possible this afternoon, but
mainly across s-central VT and possibly at KRUT. With partial
clearing Monday night, patchy fog is expected to develop and may
result in periods of LIFR conditions during the pre-dawn hours
on Tuesday. This would be most likely to occur at the KMPV and
KSLK taf locations. Winds are generally expected to be 10 kts or
less throughout the TAF period.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Banacos