644
FXUS61 KBUF 290011
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
811 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread showers with a rumble of thunder will continue into
this evening. Showers decrease in coverage tonight through
Wednesday, with dry weather returning Thursday into the weekend.
We can also expect a day to day warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Regional radar shows plenty of showers across the eastern Great
Lakes region this evening. A cluster of thunderstorms exists across
the Niagara Peninsula this evening. The eastern flank of these heavy
showers and thunderstorms is across the Niagara Falls area. This
activity will move south and weaken as it enters Lake Erie and Erie
county tonight. Elsewhere, numerous showers will weaken and move
east of the forecast area this evening.

A shortwave trough will move east and exit the region tonight. With
dwindling support shower activity will wind down. We will remain
overcast though with temperatures settling into the low to mid 50s.

While the base of the longwave trough will remain centered over our
region on Wednesday...shortwaves moving through the deep cyclonic
flow should largely track by to our south. A weak secondary cold
front will stall across Pennsylvania at that time as well...so the
only organized shower activity for our area will be over the western
Southern Tier. Otherwise...partial clearing will be found further to
the north...particularly east of Lake Ontario. Unfortunately...high
temperatures will once again only in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid-level trough axis will sweep across the eastern Great Lakes
Wednesday night through Thursday. Despite the trough overhead,
departing low pressure and surface cold front across the southern
Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic coast line Wednesday night, will
give way Thursday to surface high pressure gradually building east
into the eastern Great Lakes. Surface high pressure will then reside
across the area through Saturday.

Given the weather pattern, dry weather will persist from Wednesday
night through Saturday. In addition to the dry weather, temperatures
will start off on the chillier side for the end of May with lows
Wednesday and Thursday nights bottoming out in the 40s with a few
upper 30s possible across the higher terrain of the Western Southern
Tier and the eastern Lake Ontario region. With the exit of the mid-
level trough, temperatures will gradually warm by the end of the
week. Highs by Saturday will range in the 70s, with the warmer
readings occuring across the Lake Plains and the Genesee Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A broad upper level ridge and surface high pressure will shift east
of the region through the back half of the weekend. While this
should allow for generally quiet and rain-free weather to persist
across the eastern Great Lakes, confidence is low in how quickly the
ridge breaks down. Depending on how this longwave pattern evolves,
some weak shortwave energy and a small uptick and moisture could
sneak in from the west and bring a few showers or thunderstorms to
the region Saturday night through Monday, though chances remain low
(15-30%). More potent shortwave energy and deeper moisture is
expected to move into the Great Lakes region moving further into the
workweek, which will bring greater chances for more widespread
precipitation by Tuesday.

With high pressure ridging moving towards and away from the East
Coast leading to a gentle prevailing southerly flow, temperatures
will continue to see a day-to-day warming trend this period. High
temperatures moving into the first week of June are expected to be
mainly in the 80s, with overnight lows in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Regional radar shows plenty of showers across the eastern Great
Lakes region this evening. A cluster of thunderstorms exists across
the Niagara Peninsula. The eastern flank of these heavy showers and
thunderstorms is across KIAG and producing ceilings 3-5k ft and
visibility 4SM or higher. This activity will move south into KBUF
this evening. Elsewhere, numerous showers will weaken and move east
of the forecast area. Flight conditions are a mix of MVFR and VFR
this evening.

Showers will continue to diminish overnight. Winds will also
diminish overnight and low level moisture will remain resulting in
lowering flight conditions. IFR or below is likely at higher
elevations including KJHW overnight into Wednesday morning. Mostly
MVFR conditions elsewhere overnight, however there is a low
probability of IFR conditions at KBUF between 8-12z. Drier air will
enter the Saint Lawrence Valley and flight conditions will improve
at KART overnight into Wednesday.

Drier air will move into the region from the north Wednesday. MVFR
or below will linger across the higher terrain Wednesday morning
into Wednesday afternoon. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
possible across the western Southern Tier late Wednesday morning
through Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday...MVFR with a chance of showers.
Thursday through Saturday...VFR.
Sunday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of a shower.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will continue to diminish on the waters this
evening. A north to northwest breeze late tonight into Wednesday
will produce some modest chop on both lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ005-006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/HSK
NEAR TERM...AR/HSK
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK