032
FXUS61 KBUF 240227
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1027 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building into the region will provide us with fair
dry weather through Friday. On and off periods of showers and
thunderstorms are then expected through the long holiday weekend
with the most unsettled conditions expected Saturday and
Monday...though Sunday should feature mainly dry and pleasant
weather. Additional showers will then linger into Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY EVENING/...
Surface-based ridging extending eastward from the Upper Great Lakes
will provide us with tranquil weather overnight. Skies will be
largely clear...save for some cirrus-level blowoff from Tennessee
Valley convection that may brush the Southern Tier...and some
limited mid-level clouds attendant to a passing shortwave that will
cross the Saint Lawrence Valley late. Overnight lows will mostly be
in the lower to mid 50s...with winds generally limited to around 5
mph out of the southwest during the latter two thirds of the night.

On Friday the surface ridge axis will settle directly across our
region...while sharp upper-level ridging will build eastward from
the Upper Great Lakes. This will provide us with continued fair dry
weather...with temps warming some over the western counties as warm
air advection helps readings to climb back into the upper 70s to
lower 80s there. Further east the warm air advection won`t start
until later...resulting in cooler afternoon highs ranging from the
mid 60s across the higher terrain to the mid 70s across the lower
elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid level ridge axis will slide across the eastern Great Lakes
Friday night, continuing to support dry weather overnight. However
the dry weather will come to an end as the next mid-level shortwave
trough will slide across the central Great lakes late Friday night
into Saturday supporting surface low pressure to slide east across
the Upper Great Lakes and across southern Canada. While the surface
low slides east to the north of New York State Saturday and Saturday
night, a pair of fronts will slide across the area. Initially a warm
front will slide from west to east mid-day Saturday and Saturday
afternoon. Similar to Wednesday of this week, the later arrival time
will support enough instability and moisture to advect into the area
and support a few embedded thunderstorms within the showers
associated with the front.

Showers will then linger throughout the night as the cold front
passes across the region Saturday night. In the wake of the front,
shower will diminish and support a drying trend heading into Sunday.

Sunday will be the driest day of the Memorial Day weekend holiday,
as an area of high pressure will extend south across the region.
Temperatures Sunday will topple off in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday night and Monday a warm front will lift across the region,
bringing a return to a more humid airmass. Lift along the front,
combined with diffluent flow aloft ahead of a mid level shortwave
will bring a period of rain to end the Memorial Day holiday weekend.

This diffluent flow and copious amounts of moisture (PWATS 1.5 to
1.75) could allow for heavier downpours of rain within
thunderstorms.

A cold front Monday night will continue showers for our region.
Moisture wrapping around the initial shortwave may linger these
showers into Tuesday.

Warm southerly breezes Monday will be replaced by cooler westerly
breeze for Tuesday.

A shortwave ridge may bring a less active day Tuesday before a
second shortwave deepening a longwave trough over our region
continues chances for showers through at least Wednesday if not
Thursday.

Temperatures at 850 hPa will lower to around zero Celsius, and
possibly below zero across Lake Ontario and points eastward
Wednesday and Thursday. This cold air flowing over the now milder
lakes may bring lake clouds or even some lake enhanced rain.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unlimited VFR conditions will dominate the TAF period as surface-
based ridging over the Upper Great Lakes continues building eastward
across our region. Expect just some thin cirrus to brush the
Southern Tier tonight...with some very limited diurnally-driven
cumulus with bases of 5-6 kft developing during Friday. Generally
light southwesterly winds tonight will become westerly to west-
northwesterly and increase to around 10 knots on Friday.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms developing.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday...Restrictions likely with showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday...Restrictions likely with showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build into the region through Friday with light
to moderate winds prevailing...along with waves at or below 3 feet.
Generally remain light to modest winds and minimal waves will then
continue through most of the weekend as a weakening trough crosses
the area on Saturday...followed by high pressure moving back into
the region Sunday. The above said...the passing trough could produce
some showers and thunderstorms capable of locally higher winds and
waves Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...JJR/TMA