Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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436 FXUS61 KBUF 252103 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 503 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Lingering showers will wind down this evening as high pressure builds into the region...bringing a return to fair weather for the overnight hours and Sunday...when the best weather of the weekend is expected. A complex storm system tracking across the Upper Great Lakes will then support very unsettled weather for Monday...with this bringing potential for some strong thunderstorms and locally heavy downpours. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of late afternoon the main batch of pcpn attendant to a passing mid-level shortwave is now primarily draped across areas from the Genesee Valley eastward...and continues to steadily pull east. This diminishing trend will continue over the next 3-4 hours...and have sped this up in the forecast some to account for recent radar and satellite trends. With this area of precip and associated cloud cover also having stabilized the lower levels of the atmosphere to the point where it is devoid of noteworthy instability...have also largely pulled any mention of thunder that had previously been attendant to this departing area of pcpn. Further west...the return of some sunshine and the approach of a decaying surface trough from the Central Great Lakes could still generate just enough weak instability and lift to pop a few more widely separated showers across far western New York through early this evening...however the degree of destabilization expected here also appears unlikely to be supportive of any additional thunder. From sunset onward...any leftover scattered showers will continue to end from west to east through the rest of the evening and early overnight hours. This clearing...coming on the heels of fairly widespread convection...could lead to some late night fog and stratus as we push into the wee hours of Sunday morning. Sunday...high pressure will quickly build into the region providing clear skies and an overall fantastic day for outdoor activities. With full sunshine on display in the afternoon temperatures should easily peak in the mid 70s to low 80s in spots. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The pattern become amplified as an upper level trough digs into the Mid-Western States and Upper Great Lakes region Sunday night into Memorial Day. A warm front that extends from surface low pressure over Illinois will move from south to north across the forecast area. A plume of GOMEX moisture will move into the region with PWATS over the 90th percentile for this time of year. The first wave of showers will be associated with the nose of a 40kt low level jet. The showers will move through the forecast area late Sunday night into Monday morning. There will likely be a break across western NY Monday morning, however destablization will occur with daytime heating and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. There are hints of a prefrontal trough across western NY Monday afternoon, as well as an approaching cold front as the surface low moves into northern lower Michigan. Relatively strong mid-level flow will be present as a shortwave trough becomes negatively tilted to our northwest. Conditions are favorable for organized convection and some strong to severe thunderstorms. This activity will then move northeast across the Finger Lakes region and into north central NY into Monday evening. There is a Day 3 Marginal Risk out for the area. The moist airmass will also make for torrential downpours and isolated flooding can`t be ruled out. Rainfall amounts may exceed an inch especially east-southeast of Lake Ontario. There will likely be drier air in the mid-levels across western NY which may limit rainfall amounts. The cold front will move across the region Monday night. Overall, showers and storms will end from west to east across the region, however moisture lingers behind the departing system. Showers will remain possible into Tuesday morning. The upper level trough will become nestled over the Great Lakes region Tuesday. A series of shortwave troughs will round the base of the trough across the Upper Midwest region and Ohio Valley. Cool air aloft during daytime heating and lift from the approaching trough will support low to medium chances for showers and a few thunderstorms across the region Tuesday afternoon into evening. The next shortwave trough and cold front will approach Tuesday night and support another period of showers overnight. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An upper level trough will be across the eastern Great Lakes region Wednesday through Thursday. There will be multiple shortwave troughs that rotate cyclonically around the parent low and bring periods of unsettled weather. Thunderstorms are possible especially in the afternoon into early evening. The trough will move east through the end of the week and cooler air will filter into the region into Friday. Surface high pressure will move into the region for the weekend resulting in moderate confidence of fair and dry weather Friday to Saturday. Temperatures will start out below normal Wednesday and Thursday and increase to near to above normal Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Leftover showers from the Genesee Valley eastward will continue to wind down from west to east through early this evening as the supporting mid level disturbance exits our region. Behind this...some renewed sunshine and a the approach of a decaying surface trough could pop a few more widely scattered showers across far western New York through early this evening...otherwise largely dry conditions are expected there. In general flight conditions will be VFR...with highly localized/brief MVFR/IFR possible within any showers. Tonight...high pressure will build into the region...bringing an end to any leftover showers. Clearing skies and light winds will also lead to the development of areas of fog and lower stratus... resulting in fairly widespread MVFR to IFR conditions through daybreak Sunday. After sunrise...renewed diurnal heating and mixing will lead to the dissipation of any fog and low stratus that forms overnight...leaving behind widespread VFR conditions for the rest of the day. Outlook... Monday...Restrictions likely with showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday and Wednesday...Restrictions possible with showers. Thursday...VFR. && .MARINE... Lingering showers will continue to wind down from west to east through the first half of tonight as high pressure builds into our region...while winds will largely to be light to modest at 10 knots or less. With a moist airmass in place...clearing skies could allow for some areas of fog to develop overnight. On Sunday the axis of the high will slide across our area in the morning...then off to our northeast during the afternoon. This will result in light to modest winds turning east-northeasterly under 10 knots...with fair weather prevailing outside of any areas of early morning fog. More notable winds will occur on Monday into Tuesday with increasing southerly winds early Monday taking on a more west-southwesterly component Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Winds could nudge into the 15 to 25 knots range with possible small craft headlines needed during this time period. Scattered gusty thunderstorms will also be possible Monday. Boaters should continue to monitor the forecast, especially given the holiday weekend which will likely increase boating activity. This will especially be the case on Monday as conditions on the lower Great Lakes will likely deteriorate. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/JJR NEAR TERM...AR/JJR SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...AR/JJR MARINE...AR/JJR