Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
076 FXUS61 KBUF 251833 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 233 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms. Weak high pressure will then allow with fair weather to return tonight with the finest weather of the weekend slated for Sunday. Looking at the end of the long Memorial Day weekend...a complex storm system over the Upper Great Lakes will support very unsettled weather for Monday...including the potential for drenching thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front in association with the mid-level trough will continue to spawn showers and thunderstorms as it works from west to east this afternoon and evening. With PWAT values near 1.5" any of the stronger storms will be capable of producing torrential downpours, frequent lightning and gusty winds. As we head towards sunset...the strongest convection should be east of our area with clearing beginning to take place over the far western counties. The residual showers will continue to end from west to east throughout the evening. This clearing...coming on the heels of fairly widespread convection...could lead to some late night fog and stratus as we push into the wee hours of Sunday morning. Sunday...high pressure will quickly build into the region providing clear skies and an overall fantastic day for outdoor activities. With full sunshine on display in the afternoon temperatures should easily peak in the mid 70s to low 80s in spots. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The pattern become amplified as an upper level trough digs into the Mid-Western States and Upper Great Lakes region Sunday night into Memorial Day. A warm front that extends from surface low pressure over Illinois will move from south to north across the forecast area. A plume of GOMEX moisture will move into the region with PWATS over the 90th percentile for this time of year. The first wave of showers will be associated with the nose of a 40kt low level jet. The showers will move through the forecast area late Sunday night into Monday morning. There will likely be a break across western NY Monday morning, however destablization will occur with daytime heating and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. There are hints of a prefrontal trough across western NY Monday afternoon, as well as an approaching cold front as the surface low moves into northern lower Michigan. Relatively strong mid-level flow will be present as a shortwave trough becomes negatively tilted to our northwest. Conditions are favorable for organized convection and some strong to severe thunderstorms. This activity will then move northeast across the Finger Lakes region and into north central NY into Monday evening. There is a Day 3 Marginal Risk out for the area. The moist airmass will also make for torrential downpours and isolated flooding can`t be ruled out. Rainfall amounts may exceed an inch especially east-southeast of Lake Ontario. There will likely be drier air in the mid-levels across western NY which may limit rainfall amounts. The cold front will move across the region Monday night. Overall, showers and storms will end from west to east across the region, however moisture lingers behind the departing system. Showers will remain possible into Tuesday morning. The upper level trough will become nestled over the Great Lakes region Tuesday. A series of shortwave troughs will round the base of the trough across the Upper Midwest region and Ohio Valley. Cool air aloft during daytime heating and lift from the approaching trough will support low to medium chances for showers and a few thunderstorms across the region Tuesday afternoon into evening. The next shortwave trough and cold front will approach Tuesday night and support another period of showers overnight. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An upper level trough will be across the eastern Great Lakes region Wednesday through Thursday. There will be multiple shortwave troughs that rotate cyclonically around the parent low and bring periods of unsettled weather. Thunderstorms are possible especially in the afternoon into early evening. The trough will move east through the end of the week and cooler air will filter into the region into Friday. Surface high pressure will move into the region for the weekend resulting in moderate confidence of fair and dry weather Friday to Saturday. Temperatures will start out below normal Wednesday and Thursday and increase to near to above normal Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Showers and storms will bring at times lower Cigs and Vsbys to area terminals as a cold from works from west to east across the CWA this afternoon and evening. Otherwise...expect VFR conditions outside of the showers and storms. Tonight...high pressure will begin to build into the region behind the cold front with VFR. clearing skies will also lead to some areas of fog and stratus resulting in fairly widespread MVFR to IFR weather through daybreak Sunday. Outlook... Sunday...Improving to VFR. Monday...Restrictions likely with showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday and Wednesday...Restrictions possible with showers. Thursday...VFR. && .MARINE... A cold front crossing the lakes will continue to bring showers and storms this afternoon into this evening. Some of the stronger storms could produce gusty winds and frequent lightning. Winds outside of the storms will generally be light with minimal wave action. Behind the cold frontal passage tonight winds turn east-northeasterly generally under 10 knots Sunday...as high pressure will briefly build across the lower Great Lakes. More notable winds will occur on Monday into Tuesday with increasing southerly winds early Monday taking on a more west-southwesterly component Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Winds could nudge into the 15 to 25 knots range with possible small craft headlines needed during this time period. Scattered gusty thunderstorms will also be possible Monday. Boaters should continue to monitor the forecast, especially given the holiday weekend which will likely increase boating activity. This will especially be the case on Monday as conditions on the lower Great Lakes will likely deteriorate. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...AR MARINE...AR