364
FXUS62 KCHS 070520
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
120 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area today. High pressure
will return for the weekend, then another cold front will move
through Monday. High pressure will build back in behind the
front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Early this morning: Right on cue like the hi-res models
suggested, showers started bubbling up right after midnight.
There are showers developing across the forecast area, as well
as showers developing upstream closer to the upstream front.
Surface analysis shows the front across north Georgia and the
South Carolina Upstate. Ahead of the front, the best moisture is
in place across central Georgia and the South Carolina Midlands
all the way to the coast with precipitable water values on the
order of 1.50-2.00 inches. There isn`t much instability for
this convection to work with, but still sufficient to kick off
isolated to scattered showers with a few thunderstorms possible
as well. These showers will move quickly so any rainfall will be
relatively brief and we don`t anticipate any hydro or severe
issues. Model consensus suggests that this isolated to scattered
convection will last through about 6 am before shifting
offshore. Temperatures are quite warm for the early morning
hours, with many places still in the upper 70s and low 80s. Lows
should only fall into the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An elongated axis of upper level low pressure will build across
the Northern Plains/Great Lakes and New England region during
the first part of the near term with low amplitude troughing
pressing down through the Mid Atlantic and southeast states.
Surface boundary is still looking to gradually slip down through
the region during the course of day Friday and will knock
temperatures down a few degrees from where we have been the last
few. But the more noticeable impact will be lower
dewpoint/drier air gradually spreading into the southeast region
through the course of the day. Precip chances look minimal,
although there could be a few pop-up showers along the boundary
Friday afternoon particularly across parts of southeast Georgia
where higher dewpoint air/instability is expected to reside -
although that will depend on just where the boundary ends up at
that time.

With drier air/minimal instability across the region, Saturday
and Sunday look quiet at this juncture. But temperatures will
continue to run warm/above normal through the weekend with highs
warming into the lower to middle 90s each day...a good 5 to 10
degrees above normal for early June. Overnight lows through the
period will range through the 60s overall, to the lower/middle
70s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low amplitude ridging is looking spread out along the Gulf
Coast region through the first part of next week with
warmer/higher dewpoint air again edging back through the
southeast states. Along with several weak disturbances rippling
through the region, daytime shower/thunderstorm chances are
looking to return during the first half of the week. A
stronger/better organized upper level trough may advance through
the Gulf Coast and southeast region during the middle and
latter half of next week bringing higher precip chances,
although longer term guidance solutions do show a fair amount of
spread during that time frame. Temperatures will continue to
run above normal through the period overall, but we could see a
bit of a cooldown mid to late week...depending on how the
pattern evolves.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The main forecast challenge will be shower coverage for the next
few hours and potential impacts at the terminals. These showers
are moving quickly but could produce brief periods of heavy
rain, MVFR visibilities, and gusty winds. The best chance for
showers will be at KCHS and KJZI, and we have included TEMPO
group at these sites. Shower activity should end by around 10z,
and then the rest of the TAF period should be dry and VFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Overall VFR conditions will prevail
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Winds will surge as a cold front approaches from the
west, but remains inland overnight. A somewhat enhanced pressure
gradient should yield south-southwest winds upwards to 15-20 kt
across most local waters, with highest speeds across South
Carolina waters and the CHS Harbor. Seas should also build up to
3-4 ft. There is a chance for some thunderstorms to develop
near the coast late tonight, producing strong wind gusts.
Special Marine Warnings could eventually be needed.

Friday through Monday: Southerly flow early Friday will veer
westerly Friday night and northerly on Saturday behind a cold
front. However, the pattern quickly reverts back to the typical
southerly/ southwesterly flow later in the weekend into early
next week. Winds will continue to run 15 knots or less with seas
3 feet or less.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...Adam
LONG TERM...Adam
AVIATION...Adam/BSH
MARINE...Adam/DPB