414
FXUS61 KCLE 111937
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
337 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure drifts through the eastern U.S. through Thursday.
A weak cold front crosses Thursday night into early Friday, with
strong high pressure returning for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet but warmer weather persists through Wednesday night. A
shortwave glides through the southern Great Lakes late tonight
into early Wednesday but will just bring some passing higher
level clouds, with mostly sunny skies returning Wednesday. Some
patchy valley fog is possible early Wednesday morning across
interior Northwest PA. Coverage of fog should be a bit less than
early this morning. Lows tonight will range from the 40s in
some interior valleys from extreme Northeast OH into Northwest
PA to the mid-upper 50s west of I-71. Highs on Wednesday will
reach the low to mid 80s across most of Ohio but will likely
stay in the 70s from far Northeast OH into Northwest PA. Lows
Wednesday night will generally be in the 60s, though a few
outlying areas from eastern OH into PA may dip into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
With high pressure to the east of the region, the forecast area will
be under strong warm advection ahead of a cold front on Thursday.
Temperatures will rise considerably into the 80s and even lower 90s
by Thursday afternoon. Dew points will rise a bit to around 60 and a
slight additional amount of moisture may allow for some scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop with a cold front Thursday
evening into Thursday night. Coverage will be problematic with the
lack of abundant moisture and poor diurnal timing, but will continue
the mid-range PoP across the area ahead of the frontal passage. Dry
weather and cooler temperatures will be expected for Friday with
northwest flow and high pressure across the area. A mix of 70s and
lower 80s will be expected for highs, which is slightly below normal
for mid-June.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cooler, high pressure pattern from Friday will continue into
Saturday with the backside of a trough and northwest flow aloft.
Temperatures will continue on the cooler side of normal with 70s and
lower 80s. For Sunday and onward into next week, the heat will be on
across the forecast area as a strong upper ridge will build into the
region and allow for a considerably warmer air mass to quickly
enter. 850 mb temperatures of 18-20 C on Sunday will warm to 20-22 C
on Monday into Tuesday and allow for highs of 80s into 90s on Sunday
and then widespread 90s on Monday into Tuesday. The maximum
temperatures for Monday and Tuesday could rise further into the
upper bounds of 90s depending on how efficiently the area loses low-
level/surface moisture after any rain that occurs on Thursday night.
A period with dry and hot conditions will tend to brew more dry and
more hot conditions. Conversely, there is some spread on the other
end of things where the ridge may not be as strong and allow for
some overriding energy to flatten it out over the area. Therefore,
there could be some conditional convection across the area on Monday
and Tuesday, which may hinder temperatures from the near record
forecast. Still some time to see things through, but trends are warm
either way.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR expected through the TAF period. A SCT-BKN cumulus deck in
the FL040-050 range from CAK-YNG-ERI points southeast will exit
through the afternoon. Patchy valley fog is possible from
extreme eastern OH into interior PA late tonight into early
Wednesday but is not expected to impact any TAF sites.

Light northerly winds at generally 7 knots or less will shift
south at less than 7 knots tonight, increasing to 5 to 10 knots
out of the southwest on Wednesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered showers Thursday night
into early Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure across the region will slowly shift east through
Thursday and allow for light offshore flow for the next two days or
so. Instances of a lake breeze this evening and on Wednesday will
allow for brief windows of light onshore flow, but nothing atypical
for mid-June. A cold front will approach the lake for the second
half of Thursday and southwest winds will increase before shift to
the west then northwest behind the front Thursday night into Friday.
High pressure will enter the region for Friday and Saturday and
support light flow on the lake that will shift to the northeast on
Saturday then southeast by Sunday. No headlines are expected on the
lake at this time.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Sefcovic