730
FXUS61 KCTP 111111
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
711 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A pocket of cool air in the mid levels of the atmosphere will
help to create plenty of clouds today with afternoon high
temperatures averaging 5 to 10 degrees below normal for the
date.

High pressure will build over Pennsylvania late today
through Wednesday.

As the high drifts east of the region, heat and humidity will
ramp up for Thursday and Friday, followed by a cold frontal
passage with scattered thunderstorms during the day Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Anomalously cold air in the 850-700 mb layer and shallow
moisture advecting SE from the Lower Glakes will help to
maintain plenty of clouds across the Northern and Western
portions of the CWA through late this morning.

Temps will start the day today ranging from the mid 40s to mid
50s

The OVC layer of stratocu clouds (AOB 3KFT AGL) were spread
over the Allegheny Plateau and portions of the Central Mtns
while sct-bkn, higher based stratocu and altocu were seen over
the Susq Valley.

Vertical mixing of very dry air above the cloud deck near and to
the SE of the Allegheny Front will create some significant holes
this afternoon, while bkn-ovc skies could persist for much or
all of the day near, and just to the east of the RT 219 corridor
from the Laurel Highlands to the NW Mtns of PA.

The northwest mtns should see a 5-10 degree bump in max temps
(with highs in the mid 60s), while more modest warming of
perhaps a couple of degrees is expected elsewhere with highs in
the low to mid 70s.

High pressure will begin to build in Tonight, which will
bring clearing skies and light/variable wind under 4 kts.
Patchy, or even some larger areas of fog is possible across
primarily the Northern Mtns of PA, with overnight lows ranging
from the upper 40s northwest to mid 50s southeast. Air/water
delta Ts should be around 20 deg F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
Wednesday will be a transition day between much below normal
temps to start the week and the first taste of summer heat and
humidity for Thursday and Friday.

Variable amounts of mid and high clouds will have only a minimal
amount of impact on the otherwise abundant sun with highs
ranging from the low to mid 70s over the Northern Mtns to the
low 80s throughout the Valleys of Central and Northern PA.

These readings will be just a few deg F shy of normal highs
Wednesday

Look for just a light swrly breeze on Wednesday. PWAT values
will start out around 0.8 of an inch but will increase to around
1 inch Wed afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
We`re still expecting a warm up for the second half of the
week, with afternoon highs topping out Thursday for most
locations, and perhaps Friday for SE PA.

The next chc of rain will come in the form of showers/storms in
the Thursday night into Friday timeframe, accompanying the
arrival of a cold front. The potential for stronger storms may
end up being determined by the timing of the cold front.

Next weekend looks dry, as a northerly flow of drier air from
Canada is advected into our area. Any slight cool down on
Saturday will be short-lived, with warmer temperatures progged
to build back into the area Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06z update... The latest observed satellite trends plus model
guidance yields fairly high confidence (70-80%) that lower
clouds will hang tough through at least 15-18z across the
Allegheny Highland (KBFD and KJST) and ridge and valley region
(KAOO and KUNV) terminal sites. KBFD should see the lowest
conditions (IFR restrictions), while KJST, KAOO, and KUNV are
more in the fuel alternate-MVFR range.

We do expect an improving trend during the afternoon and early
evening, especially for KAOO and KUNV, with VFR likely returning
at each of these sites by 21-00z. There could be some patchy fog
develop again after 03-04z, with the highest potential (40-60%)
for this at KBFD.

Farther east across the Susquehanna Valley terminal sites (KIPT,
KMDT, and KLNS), cloud cover should be thinner and with higher
ceiling bases, so confidence is fairly high (around 80%) of
prevailing VFR.

NW surface winds 5-10 kt for most sites today, should diminish
to light speeds by/after sunset.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected.

Fri...Restrictions possible if afternoon/evening CB/TSRA
develop.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Martin/Evanego
AVIATION...Jurewicz/Bowen/Tyburski