645
FXUS61 KCTP 080200
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1000 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent Northwest flow aloft with a few embedded upper level
troughs will keep it cooler, breezy and pleasant heading into
the weekend with low humidity. After another round of showers
Sunday morning, we expect a reinforcement of cool air Monday
preceding a warming trend towards the middle and end of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Plenty of high based stratocu and altocu clouds covered much of
Central and Northern PA this evening as a well defined mid
level thermal trough with a positive tilt (from Central NY to
the Middle Ohio River Valley) slides east across the CWA. Latest
RAP guidance shows pockets of 200-300 J/KG SFC-BASED CAPE
associated with this trough and some light spotty showers along
the I-80 corridor.

This area of clouds will gradually spread over the Middle and
Lower Susq Valley before decreasing in coverage late tonight.

Low temps around daybreak Sat in the 50-60F range are within a
few degrees either side of early June climo. Partial clearing
could allow patchy fog to form toward daybreak Saturday in the
deeper east- central valleys, but the dry air and persistent
westerly breeze should maintain good visibility in most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Vertical mixing up to around 5 KFT AGL by Late Sat morning will
be sufficient to mix out most of the lower clouds, leaving some
flat cu and higher based Altocu or Cirrus for the afternoon.

WNW Wind gusts should be in the 20 to 25 mph range during the
late morning and afternoon hours Saturday. With the temporary
departure of the cold pocket of air aloft, afternoon max temps
will be 4 or 5 deg F warmer than today (Friday) with the NW Mtns
seeing a 6-8 deg F rebound. Little day to day temp diff will be
seen across the Lower Susq Valley on Saturday. Saturday`s highs
will be in the 70-80F range from NW to SE across the CWA.

Model consensus continues to indicate the next period of
showers from late Saturday night into Sunday morning as another
shortwave trough and cold front move through the region. The
showers will be most numerous acrs the NW part of the state, and
gradually diminish as the move across the Middle and Lower Susq
Valley. Continued breezy and relatively cool for this time of
year with max/min temps near to below the historical avg. for
early June.

Temps Sunday will dip just a little compared to those on
Saturday. Another moderately breeze day is in store for Sunday
with gusts from the WNW in the low to mid 20s (MPH).

Monday should be the coolest day of the upcoming 7 days.
The approach of a potent shortwave and surface cold front
dropping SE from the Glakes will bring more clouds than sun,
along with some afternoon and evening showers across primarily
the Central and NW 2/3rds of the state.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An abnormally deep upper level low over eastern Canada will keep
cooler than normal temperatures across the area for the first
half of next week. After a chance of some showers on Sunday,
most of next week should be mainly dry. Fcst trending drier
today. Temperatures should slowly warm as one heads into the
later part of next week.

There could be some showers by late week, as additional cold
fronts drop to the southeast in northwest flow. While the
airmass ahead of each front is expected to be on the warm side,
low level moisture at this point is expected to be limited.
However past experience is that one needs to watch such a
pattern for isolated strong storms if moisture gets advected
into the area. Overall a drier pattern than in recent weeks.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Winds will gradually weaken as we head into the late evening
hours. Expect CIGS (consisting mainly of high based stratocu and
alto cu) to stay mainly in the VFR range, but a brief period of
lower CIGS may be possible at BFD, thus used a TEMPO group at
BFD.

Winds will pick up again on Saturday just after sunrise. The
depth of vertical mixing increases to 5-6 kft AGL in the late
morning and afternoon hours with peak gusts in the 20 to 25 mph
range).

A fast moving cold front will bring a chance of a few showers
Sunday (mainly during the morning hours).

Outlook...

Sun...AM low cigs possible NW Mtns, MVFR cigs linger into midday
north and west of the Allegheny Front. A chance of a few
showers.

Mon-Wed...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/DeVoir
NEAR TERM...Lambert/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Lambert/DeVoir
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Lambert/Martin