358
FXUS63 KDDC 232341
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
641 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30 to 40% chance for strong to severe thunderstorms
  across south central and a portion of southwest Kansas this
  evening, then across central Kansas late tonight.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast Saturday.

- There is a 20-30% chance for strong to severe thunderstorms
  again late Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

WV imagery indicates a closed upper low exiting the Northern Rockies
into the Northern High Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough
of low pressure is strengthening in eastern Colorado.

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible (30-40%
chance) to kick off the period this evening as the SREF indicates an
upper level trough dipping southeast through the Colorado Rockies,
sending an attendant cold front southeast into western Kansas
overnight. A developing surface low in southeast Colorado, with a
dryline extending southward into the Texas Panhandle, is projected
to deepen in southeast Colorado this afternoon before moving into
southwest Kansas this evening in response to the approaching system.
Prevailing southerlies ahead of the advancing/sharpening dryline
will draw ample moisture up into central and portions of southwest
Kansas, increasing instability with the RAP13 showing MUCAPE values
upward of 2500 to 3000 J/kg by around 00Z. However, limiting factors
to consider are a less than robust westerly flow aloft, a fairly
strong cap in place based on this morning`s sounding at KDDC, and
long lingering stratus hinder heating this afternoon, specifically
across south central and a good portion of southwest Kansas.
Regardless, if overcome, sufficient ingredients including effective
shear values upward of 30-40kt and 0-1km SRH values upward of 100
m2/s2 based on latest mesoanalysis, support the potential for
supercell development if storm initiation is realized. The latest
HREF shows the best chance for development across south central
Kansas where there is a 20-30% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding
a tenth of an inch by late this evening. A second round of
thunderstorms will be possible (40% chance) across central
Kansas later tonight in association with a cold front pushing
through the area. Drier conditions are then expected through
Friday night as surface high pressure builds in across the high
plains of western Kansas.

Winds could be fairly strong behind the front, as suggested by the
HRRR, due to a strong baroclinic response. The latest HREF does show
a 30% probability of wind gusts exceeding 50 mph across a portion of
west central Kansas late this evening. A High Wind Warning is being
considered.

Fairly seasonal temperatures are forecast tonight with cooler air
spilling into western Kansas in wake of a cold frontal passage early
Friday morning. The HREF shows a 70-90% probability of temperatures
dropping below 50F in west central Kansas and extreme southwest
Kansas with a 40 to 60% probability of lows falling below 60F in
south central Kansas. Surface high pressure filling in across the
Western High Plains Friday will reinforce a cooler air mass, holding
H85 temperatures around 15-18C across the area. The HREF indicates
an 80-90% probability of afternoon highs exceeding 70F in west central
Kansas to a greater than 90% probability of temperatures topping 75F
in south central Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Thunderstorm chances (20-30%) continue early in the weekend as
medium range ensembles indicate a broad upper level trough swinging
east through the Great Basin Saturday, then on into the Western High
Plains Saturday night. Near the surface, lee side cyclogenesis is
still projected to initiate across eastern Colorado Saturday afternoon,
then advancing along with a sharpening dryline through much of southwest
Kansas by early Saturday evening. A prevailing southeasterly upslope
flow will pull moisture into central Kansas and portions of southwest
Kansas ahead of the dryline, providing sufficient instability. Ensembles
also continue to indicate a more favorable dynamic setup aloft with
a +100kt sub-tropical jet lifting northeast out of the Desert Southwest
through the Texas Panhandle into southern Kansas/northwest Oklahoma.
With steepening mid-level lapse rates and more than sufficient
instability ahead of the dryline, thunderstorm development is
expected late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening as H5 vort
maxima begin to cycle northeast out of the approaching trough axis,
interacting with increased forcing associating along and ahead of
the dryline. The best chance for storms remains to be across central
and south central Kansas where the NBM shows a 20% probability of
12-hr QPF exceeding one-quarter inch by early Sunday morning. Drier
conditions are then expected into early next week as weak ridging
aloft slowly builds in across the Intermountain West and eventually
into the Western High Plains.

Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected Saturday departing
surface high pressure and developing lee side troughing in eastern
Colorado quickly return southerlies to western Kansas. This will
pull warmer air into the area with H85 temperatures nudging above
20C in central Kansas to the upper 20s(C) in extreme southwest
Kansas. The NBM paints 40 to 50% probability of highs exceeding 85F
central Kansas to a 70-80% probability of an exceedance of 90F for
much of southwest Kansas. Temperatures are expected to drop off
slightly into early next week in wake of a cold front pushing
through western Kansas sometime Saturday night/early Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

A strong cold front will be the primary focus across southwest
Kansas over the next 24 hours. High resolution short term models
are in good agreement that this front will cross the Garden
City and Hays areas by 06Z Friday, followed by the Dodge City
and Liberal areas between 08Z and 10Z. As the front passes,
expect gusty north winds of 25 to 35 knots, with gusts up to 45
knots, based on forecast boundary layer winds and 850 mb winds
from BUFR soundings and CAMS. These strong winds will persist
through daybreak. Additionally, a few strong to severe
thunderstorms may be possible near the Hays area between 07Z and
11Z Friday as the cold front moves through. These strong winds
overnight and early Friday will gradually decrease during the
day.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Friday
for KSZ030-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert