837
FXUS63 KDDC 010841
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
341 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The opportunity for rain will be possible today and again on
  Sunday.

- Highest severe risk looks to be late today and tonight
  downburst winds and quarter size hail being the main hazards.


- 90 degree highs return to southwest Kansas on Monday and
  based on the latest forecast humidity late day there will be a
  few locations (east and south of Dodge City) where the heat
  index values will top out in the upper 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Short term models remain in good agreement as several subtle
upper waves embedded in the westerly flow crosses eastern
Colorado and western Kansas later today and again on Sunday. A
moist upslope flow will be present both days ahead of a surface
boundary located across eastern Kansas and with improving low
level forcing developing each afternoon along this surface
boundary plus a >90% chance for CAPE values to be >1000j/kg
each day along and ahead of this boundary, the conditions are
favorable for thunderstorm development both days. Based on the
SREF earlier this morning the 0-6km shear >40knots late
today/early tonight will range from 50-70%. Sunday the chance
for >40 knot shear is not as good 10-30% so chance for severe
thunderstorms may be limited to the thunderstorms later today
and overnight. Currently given the environment from the
majority of the CAMS the main hazards will be quarter size hail
or larger, and wind gusts up to 65 mph. The hail risk will
primarily be before sunset. Another reason am favoring tonight
over Sunday night for strong to severe thunderstorms is due to
the developing low level jet develops, good 850-700mb moisture
transport with little CIN is forecast by several CAMS, This
suggest that thunderstorms tonight may linger longer as they
cross southwest Kansas.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

As we head into early next week the 850 to 700 mb temperatures
will warm on Monday as the mid level baroclinic zone that has
been over southwest Kansas the last several days moves north and
east. This will allow highs to return to the 90s for much of
southwest Kansas. Also given the recent rainfall, these
90-degree afternoon temperatures combined with forecast humidity
values currently forecast across southwest Kansas result in
heat index readings climbing into the upper 90s in some
locations, mainly east and south of Dodge City.

On Tuesday all the mean ensembles are in good agreement on a
more significant upper level trough crossing the central
plains. However, given the location of the mid-level baroclinic
zone, the chance for precipitation with this upper trough will
be limited to central Kansas and along the I-70 corridor. This
upper trough will bring cooler air into southwest Kansas by
midweek.

Mid to late week, we are a bit surprised by the lack of a
warmup in temperatures, especially west of Dodge City given that
all the ensembles appear to be in decent agreement with a
developing northwest flow as an upper ridge over the western
United States slowly moves east toward the Four Corners region.
Further east, it is understandable to keep temperatures on the
cooler side as multiple upper waves rotate around an upper low
over the Great Lakes, which will maintain a surface boundary
somewhere in central or western Kansas. The exact location of
this boundary is uncertain, and confidence in pinpointing it
that far out is low. As a result, I will stay close to the
current forecast. However, for locations west of Dodge City, do
not be surprised if high temperatures climb into the mid 90s
late in the week.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Short term models are in good agreement with a cluster of
thunderstorms crossing southwest Kansas through 10Z this
Saturday morning. As these storms pass, a brief period of
ceilings as low as 2000 to 3000 ft AGL will be possible, but the
primary ceilings will be at or above 3000 ft AGL. Winds will be
the main hazard, with gusts up to 40 knots possible, mainly in
the Garden City and Dodge City areas. Stratus and fog will be
the main issue overnight in the Hays area, with BUFR soundings
and the latest ceiling/visibility probabilities indicating a
period of LIFR conditions possible between 08Z and 15Z. These
ceilings will improve, and the thunderstorms will end from
northwest to southeast early this Saturday morning, with
clearing skies expected between 15Z and 18Z today. Winds
overnight and Saturday will be southeast at 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert/Tatro/Russell
AVIATION...Burgert