Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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609 FXUS63 KDDC 201856 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 156 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 20-30% chance for thunderstorms across west central Kansas and central Kansas tonight. - Cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday with a general warming trend into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 WV imagery indicates a large scale upper level trough of low pressure dropping slowly south through the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, a distinct upper level shortwave trough is lifting northeast off the Pacific into southern California. Near the surface, a weak surface low is shifting slowly east through southwest Kansas near and along the Oklahoma border. There is a 20-30% chance for thunderstorms across west central Kansas and central Kansas tonight as the SREF indicates a broader scale upper level trough of low pressure swinging through the Northern Rockies while a smaller upper level shortwave lifts northeast through the Desert Southwest into the high plains of eastern Colorado. Lee side cyclogenesis is projected to take place in northeast Colorado this evening with an attendant warm front extending northeast into central Nebraska. Meanwhile, prevailing southerlies ahead of an advancing trough axis associated with the surface low lifting northeast into western Nebraska will provide ample deep layer moisture with surface dewpoints well up into the 60s(F). As a result, thunderstorms are forecast to develop this evening as a series of H5 vort maxima eject northeast out of the Southern Rockies into Western High Plains, interacting with a cold front approaching from the northwest through northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska. Much of southwest/south central Kansas should remain clear of thunderstorm development as a drier air mass spreads eastward through western Kansas in wake of an advancing trough axis/dryline. However, a minimal shot for storms exists in vicinity of the I-70 corridor where the HREF shows a 10% probability for 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch by early Tuesday morning. Above normal temperatures are forecast tonight as westerly downsloping develops behind a lee side trough advancing through southwest Kansas. The latest HREF paints an 80-90% probability of lows dropping below 65F in west central Kansas to only a 10% probability in south central Kansas. A cold front pushing through western Kansas Tuesday morning will help curb higher temperatures across much of the region with H85 temperatures falling well below 20C by the afternoon. The HREF shows only a 30-50% probability of highs climbing above 75F in west central Kansas to a 70 to 90% probability of highs exceeding 80F in south central Kansas. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Another round of diurnally driven thunderstorms will be possible (20- 30%) across west central/central Kansas late Tuesday as medium range ensembles indicate a secondary upper level shortwave trough transitioning east through northeast Colorado/northwest Kansas Tuesday evening. A series of H5 vort maxima are projected to track through the area in question, interacting with H7 frontogenetic banding developing in wake of a frontal boundary driving southward into the Texas Panhandle/northwest Oklahoma. The latest NBM paints only paints a very minimal 20% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch in vicinity of the I-70 corridor by early Wednesday morning. Very spotty thunderstorm chances (20%) return Thursday as another upper level trough of low pressure kicks eastward out of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern High Plains, sending an attendant cold front southeastward into western Kansas sometime Thursday night/early Friday. Fairly seasonal temperatures are forecast Wednesday with the NBM indicating a 50-60% probability of highs exceeding 75F in west central Kansas to a 80-90% probability of highs exceeding 75F in south central Kansas. A warming trend is then expected through the end of the week as departing surface high pressure returns southerlies to southwest/central Kansas. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1104 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 IFR/MVFR cigs will linger in vicinity of all TAF sites through mid/late-afternoon as prevailing low level stratus is slow to lift/scatter out. Widespread VFR conditions are expected to return this evening. Light and variable winds through early afternoon due to a small surface low edging east through southwest Kansas are expected to become east-southeasterly around 10 to 20kt by this evening as the surface low washes out while another low/lee side trough develops in eastern Colorado. Westerly winds 10 to 20kt are then forecast to develop overnight...generally after 08-10Z...as the lee side trough exits eastern Colorado, pushing east through southwest Kansas. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJohnson LONG TERM...JJohnson AVIATION...JJohnson