Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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592 ACUS01 KWNS 261641 SWODY1 SPC AC 261640 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe storms are possible from the Ozarks and nearby Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley States today, with threats for tornadoes, severe gusts and occasional large hail. ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/26/2024 $$