455
FXUS64 KEPZ 071800
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1200 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Another hot day is expected for today with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms during the afternoon, especially in the
mountains. Dry lightning and strong downdraft winds are the main
concerns through Saturday. Storm chances linger through Monday for
northeastern areas as disturbances pass by. Temperatures become
hot again by midweek as mainly dry conditions return.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Temps cool just a degree or so for today as the upper high shifts
into west TX, allowing for a better monsoon pattern. Yesterday`s
highs were near the NBM 75th percentile once again, but the
increased cloud cover today could limit our heating potential.
Scattered to broken CU develop in the mid-afternoon across the
lowlands as dry t-storms pop up in the mountains. More isolated
activity develops this evening for the lowlands as outflows slosh
about and spark new cells.

With dew point depressions of 60-70 degrees and DCAPE values
2000+ J/kg, any storms that develop have the potential to produce
strong downdraft/dry microburst winds (50+ mph) this afternoon and
evening. Strong outflow winds may produce haboobs. Dry lightning
is another threat as the dry lower levels evaporate most if not
all rainfall that is produced. Instability and shear will be
meager at best, so garden- variety pop-up storms are expected
until diurnal heating ceases this evening. This trend will
continue into the weekend as the upper high drifts further to the
east and a weak upper low moves into the region from the Baja.
These two features will squeeze in moisture from the south, but
not a significant amount. PWs stay slightly above normal (~0.75")
on Saturday with the higher terrain most likely to see activity.
Gusty outflows and downdrafts remain possible into Saturday
evening. Precip totals are expected to be light through Saturday
due to the deep dry layer the rain has to overcome.

For Sunday and Monday, a backdoor front diving down the High
Plains looks to merge with the Baja low, generating precip chances
for northeastern areas. The moisture battles against developing
westerly winds under the base of the opening shortwave. By
midweek, the ridge takes over the region as most if not all
lingering moisture is flushed out. Isolated storms remain possible
in the mountains just due to orographic lift and residual surface
moisture. Temperatures cool to near or below normal early next
week behind the backdoor front/height falls from the passing
shortwave. Rebounding temps are expected by the middle of next
week underneath an amplified ridge, getting near heat advisory
criteria. Other than gusty outflows/downdrafts, winds remain light
to modestly breezy through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Generally VFR conditions expected but thunderstorms are expected
areawide with each terminal having the chance to see a storm or
two this afternoon and evening. Biggest concerns with storms today
will be gusty and erratic outflow winds around thunderstorms.
Isolated strong gusts of 40-60MPH possible right in the vicinity
of the storm but will be less further away from the storm. In
addition, dust may be kicked around due to thunderstorms which
may cause reductions in visibilities. Wind speeds outside of
thunderstorms will feature light breezes in the afternoon out of
the south becoming calm this evening. All terminals have a chance
to see a storm now through late tonight. However, KELP and KLRU
could expect storms should begin to see storms around and after
00Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Low to moderate fire danger is expected through the period. Hot
temperatures are forecast for today as moisture levels increase
slightly into the weekend. Better shower and storm chances are
expected for Friday and Saturday, especially over the mountains
with potential for stronger gusts from downdrafts and outflows.
Dry lightning remains a threat into the weekend with potential for
new fire starts in the mountains. A couple disturbances keep the
threat of showers and storms through Monday for areas to the north
and east. Precip chances diminish by midweek as dry westerly
winds develop and flush out most of the moisture. A few storms
remain possible in the mountains for the middle of next week.
Temperatures will cool to near normal early in the week as the
disturbances pass by. Mainly dry and hotter conditions are
expected for the middle of next week.

Min RHs will range from 8-15% in the lowlands, 12-25% in the
mountains through Saturday. Vent rates will be very good to
excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 107  79 102  78 /  20  40  20  20
Sierra Blanca            98  68  96  70 /  20  50  20  30
Las Cruces              105  72 101  70 /  30  40  20  20
Alamogordo              103  68  98  66 /  20  40  20  20
Cloudcroft               79  54  75  54 /  40  40  40  20
Truth or Consequences   101  71  98  71 /  30  30  20  20
Silver City              95  65  89  62 /  30  30  20  20
Deming                  105  70  98  66 /  30  40  20  20
Lordsburg               102  68  96  65 /  20  30  20  20
West El Paso Metro      104  76  99  74 /  20  40  20  20
Dell City               103  68 101  68 /  20  40  20  20
Fort Hancock            105  70 102  69 /  20  40  20  30
Loma Linda               97  70  93  68 /  20  40  20  20
Fabens                  106  73 101  73 /  20  40  20  20
Santa Teresa            103  72  98  70 /  20  40  20  20
White Sands HQ          104  77  98  77 /  20  40  20  20
Jornada Range           104  68  99  67 /  30  40  20  20
Hatch                   105  68 101  68 /  30  40  20  20
Columbus                104  76  98  72 /  20  40  20  20
Orogrande               102  71  98  69 /  20  40  20  20
Mayhill                  92  59  88  59 /  40  50  40  20
Mescalero                90  57  87  57 /  40  40  30  20
Timberon                 89  55  85  56 /  30  40  40  20
Winston                  93  60  90  61 /  40  30  30  20
Hillsboro               100  69  94  67 /  40  30  30  20
Spaceport               102  64  98  64 /  30  40  20  20
Lake Roberts             95  61  90  60 /  40  30  20  20
Hurley                   98  64  93  60 /  30  30  20  20
Cliff                   104  63  98  61 /  30  20  10  20
Mule Creek               98  66  92  65 /  20  10  10  10
Faywood                  98  68  93  65 /  30  40  20  20
Animas                  101  69  95  64 /  20  30  20  20
Hachita                 101  70  96  66 /  30  30  30  20
Antelope Wells          100  71  93  65 /  40  40  30  20
Cloverdale               94  68  89  64 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ407-410-411.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher