Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
822 FXUS64 KEPZ 201750 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1150 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 316 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024 Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will be the theme through the week. The combination of this during the month of May will promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024 Overall, no changes from the previous forecast packages with breezy afternoon winds and warm temperatures through the week. For today, deep southwest flow will remain overhead with the continuation of breezy winds. Fairly decent lee-side surface low development will occur over east-central NM and western TX Panhandle during the afternoon hours. This will promote sufficient surface troughing across NM with tightening pressure gradient across the forecast area. This, in combination with deep afternoon mixing will lead to breezy winds this afternoon. Winds will be W/SW at 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Dry air with mostly clear skies will promote hot temperatures once again, hot by middle to end of May standards, with temps ranging 4-7 degrees above the seasonal average. Breezy winds remain in place on Tuesday with continued above average warmth. Flow aloft flattens out and becomes more zonal for the second half of the week. This means continued very dry conditions, afternoon breezes, plenty of sunshine, and temperatures remaining above average. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with FEW-SCT250. Breezy west winds will continue to increase and will reach it`s peak around 21-00Z before tapering off for the evening. Winds are expected to continue low end breezes (10-15KT) from 03-06Z due to a pacific cold front pushing in from the west this evening and into the overnight hours. The front will shift west winds to the northwest. KTCS and KDMN can expect the front to arrive around 02Z with KELP and KLRU seeing the front by 03-04Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 316 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024 A RED FLAG WARNING is in effect for all SW and south-central NM fire weather zones today. Min RH values will tank into single digits for the desert lowlands, 8-15% for the Gila Wilderness and Sacramento Mtns. Increasing SW flow aloft, along with weak surface troughing and deep afternoon mixing across NM will promote breezy to windy conditions on today. Winds will range from 15-25 mph with higher gusts of 30-40 mph, generally out of the W/SW. Fire weather conditions will be ELEVATED to near-CRITICAL through the week. A very dry airmass will continue to settle in place across the Desert SW with Min RH values below 15% each afternoon with poor overnight recoveries for almost all locations. Temperatures through the week will be at or slightly above the seasonal average. With this extended period of very dry conditions and warming temperatures, fuels (especially the 10hr and 100hr fuels) will quickly dry and cure. Corresponding ERC charts will sharply increase into the 90-97th percentile through next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 68 94 65 93 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 65 88 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 60 91 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 58 88 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 45 64 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 58 88 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 50 78 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 55 90 51 90 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 53 87 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 64 92 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 63 92 54 94 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 65 96 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 62 85 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 64 95 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 59 90 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 66 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 56 88 52 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 56 90 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 60 91 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 61 88 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 53 77 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 49 76 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 50 75 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 48 79 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 53 85 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 53 88 49 87 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 46 80 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 49 83 46 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 52 86 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 50 81 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 52 82 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 53 89 49 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 55 89 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 55 90 52 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 54 84 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher