798
FXUS63 KFGF 042332
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
632 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe threat is ending for our area though strong thunderstorms
  remain possible through 5pm.

- Wind gusts near to over 45 mph with additional showers and
  thunderstorms are anticipated Wednesday, with 30 to 40 mph
  wind gusts and isolated showers on Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Clouds and rain continue to move east of the area this evening.
Severe weather chances have also shifted east and we are not
expecting anymore tonight. A few isolated showers will continue
to move through lakes country towards Lake of the Woods this
evening. Starting to see winds start to increase in central
North Dakota. This will be the trend as we head into tomorrow,
with a wind advisory going into affect for areas west of the
valley 12z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...Synopsis...

Threat severe weather is likely over for the region as the line of
storms is now located from near Sauk Centre to our south to east of
Baudette in the north. Lingering rain will clear most by 5pm across
the region with dry weather settling in for the night.

The upper trough bringing our current storms to northwest Minnesota
this afternoon will continue to elongate with a NW to SE orientation
as is it consolidates into a closed upper low over the Great Lakes
later this week with a jet streak overhead the upper midwest/
northern plains. Strong positive vorticity advection ahead of a
secondary wave currently noted in water vapor over southern British
Columbia will help to mix winds to the surface tomorrow. Along with
much cooler 700-850mb temps behind today`s front and steepening sfc-
4km lapse rates to further enhance wind transfer to the sfc from
aloft. Currently very high (>80%) probs for winds over 25kts and
have issued a wind advisory accordingly. Unsure yet on the eastern
extent though including all ND/MN valley counties at a later time is
not out the question. Could see the need for another wind advisory
Thursday though with a more shallow mixing layer only extending to
near 800mb will continue to simply monitor the threat for now.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday, with just showers
Thursday. The most shower/thunder activity would be during the
afternoons of both days. Upper low moves off the east later in the
week with calmer conditions for Friday and the weekend. Upper low
gets replaced by mid level ridging hence the more tranquil weather
before breaking down early next week introducing returning chances
for more rain to start next week. Despite rain or sun each looks to
remain seasonal temperature wise with highs in the 60s to 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Area of clouds in northwestern Minnesota associated with the
upper level low east of the area will continue to move east
through the evening hours. BJI will see chances for -RA through
04z on an isolated basis, with OVC coverage. Ceilings remain VFR
for all sites through the TAF period. Gradual clearing is
expected for all sites post 6z, with SCT to FEW clouds by 12z.
Winds start to increase out of the west 12z-18z, with peak winds
around 20-22z for all sites. Strongest winds will be in DVL,
with gusts up to 35kts 19z toward the end of the TAF period.
TVF, GFK, and FAR will see the potential for gusts up to 30kts.
BJI will see up to 20kts in gusts post 18z through the end of
the TAF period. Winds will continue to be strong post TAF period
until sunset. Sustained winds for GFK, TVF, FAR, and DVL will
range between 15-25kts, with the strongest being in DVL. A
slight chance does exist for isolated showers in BJI near the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Spender
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...Spender