Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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568 FXUS63 KFGF 040745 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 245 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and non-severe thunderstorms will continue to track through the area this morning, with the greatest rainfall amounts still expected north of a line from Valley City to Baudette. - Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop through the morning and afternoon. If enough heating occurs east of the Red River Valley, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible there from 1 pm to 4 pm, with hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts up to 60 mph being the primary hazards. - 40 to 50 mph wind gusts with additional showers and thunderstorms are anticipated Wednesday, with 35 to 45 mph wind gusts and isolated showers on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...Synopsis... The expected 700/500mb wave, 850/700mb warm advection, and a strong low level jet are currently providing the main lift for the complex of showers and storms moving into the western FA. These features will continue to push slowly eastward today. The upper low or lows will eventually set up across southern Canada toward the Great Lakes, setting the stage for a windy Wednesday and Thursday. There is much more uncertainty beyond that, but no big precipitation producers appear at this point. ...This morning... As of 2 am, there was a long line of showers and thunderstorms extending from Western Manitoba all the way down into Nebraska, moving eastward. It appears there must be a compact wave within this area just northwest of Jamestown, where there seems to be some counter-clockwise spin to the echoes. Believe this is why the models have been showing the highest potential for precipitation amounts of 1.00 inches or more, mainly north of a line from Valley City to Baudette. The echoes are weaker and not as widespread to the south of this line. As mentioned above, the low level jet is pretty strong (35 to 50 knots) feeding into this complex, and precipitable water values are around 1.3 to 1.4 inches. Not too much instability around for this time of the night, but will continue to monitor this area. ...This afternoon... As mentioned yesterday at this time, there is a conditional threat for severe storms east of the Red River Valley, mainly from 1 pm to 4 pm this afternoon. The main hazards would be hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts up to 60 mph. It is conditional, as there is a lot of shower/storm activity going on now (with thick clouds too), which will continue through the morning. If some decrease to the clouds can occur later this morning into the early afternoon east of the Valley, some better instability could develop. As it stands, some of the CAMs are indicating afternoon highs to the east of the Valley approaching the upper 70s to around 80, with surface dewpoints climbing to the mid 60s. This is definitely the high end though, even more so if the clouds/rain hold down any heating there. So the two scenarios for today (which seem to be shown by the HREF UH tracks), are first that the clouds/rain hold, and any severe storms fire east of this FA...or second, a brief window of decreasing clouds occurs and enough instability develops that a few severe storms fire east of the Valley from 1 pm to 4 pm. ...Wednesday and Thursday... There is still a consistent showing in the NBM and other ensembles for the 700/500mb low to stagnate across southern Canada to the Great Lakes. This sets the stage for a windy Wednesday and Thursday, although Wednesday looks slightly more gusty at this point. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday, with just showers Thursday. The most wind and shower/thunder activity would be during the afternoons of both days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites during the early overnight period, with MVFR ceilings expected as sunrise approaches. These lower ceilings will be associated with a warm front, which will be closely followed by a cold front. Showers and embedded storms are possible prior to around 10Z, with a chance for a few stronger storms after 10Z. Winds will pick up after the cold front, with westerly winds gusting upwards of 25 knots through much of the midday and early afternoon hours. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Godon AVIATION...Lynch