Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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012 FXUS63 KFGF 060548 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds Thursday over 30-50 mph are forecast across portions of eastern North Dakota and northwest into west- central Minnesota. - Scattered showers each of the next few days. - Drier conditions this weekend before shower chances return next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Some raindrops making it to the ground with these showers, but impacts will remain low. Showers will remain a possibility today in northern Minnesota, but other areas will just see clouds. Forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 1030 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Advisory and warning criteria winds have since subsided as the boundary layer begins to decouple after sunset with surface inversion developing. As such, let the Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning expire. UPDATE Issued at 722 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Highest winds should begin to lessen in coverage as we approach sunset, but still could see more sporadic very windy gusts over 50 mph through 9 PM in portions of the Red River Valley and eastern ND. Thus, will likely keep Wind Warning and Advisory valid through then, even if majority of observations come in under criteria. Winds will remain elevated and gusty overnight given continued low level cold air advection over the area, but not to advisory/warning criteria. Showers/thunderstorms responsible for pea sized hail and gusts over 55 mph are exiting our area into central Minnesota as forcing for ascent and instability continues southeast. The chance for additional strong/severe storms has diminished. Still will see additional showers/sprinkles across the area through tonight, as lobe of vorticity continues to influence our area amid persistent CAA aloft near cloud bearing layer. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...Synopsis... Continue to note shortwave activity rotating around an upper low in Manitoba/Saskatchewan. Coupled with strong strong mid level cold advection and 850-700 mb flow of 40-50 kts a windy pattern is expected to continue through Thursday before flow weakens. After this upper low moves southeast along a tongue of potential vorticity stretching to the great lakes region a mid level trough finally clears the low level jet east of our area. In the meantime steep sfc- 700mb lapse and will maintain shower chances each day though diminishing through the weekend. ... High Wind Warning/ Wind Advisory... Strong 850mb flow can be noted in latest RAP analysis of 40-45 kts with a max of 50+ approaching from the SE Manitoba will overspread the upper Devils Lake basin this afternoon pushing winds into High Wind Warning criteria as 40+ mph sustained winds and gusts to 60 mph are possible. As the BL decouples this evening gusts should quickly diminish though may remain quite breezy through midnight. For tomorrow a similar pattern is forecast though thinking the core of the strongest winds aloft and PGF at the sfc will past us and only warrant a wind advisory for eastern North Dakota and adjacent portions of Minnesota. Punting on issuance to avoid confusion with current active headlines but foresee evening or night crew issuing more wind headlines. ...Fire Weather... Decreasing shower chances (see below) leading to more widespread low RH values with our remaining strong winds teaming up to give winds over 20 mph and RH as low as 30%. Knowing the bias in the dewpoint forecast would lean into upper 20s for humidity planning purposes. Winds seem to be well handled with this predictable pattern thus not expecting critical fire weather conditions but certainly to keep in the back of the mind and monitor. ...Shower Activity... Steep lapse rates and diurnal heating will continue to favor shower and thunderstorm formation. A weak shortwave rotating through the area should promote more widespread convective growth this afternoon through favoring NW Minnesota. Any collapsing storm should tap into the stronger winds aloft warranting the 5% risk across the area for wind though hail potential looks low due to shallow nature of storms. The lower freezing levels could help compensate for this however thus the 5% hail risk. Shallower boundary layer Thursday and Friday will cut down on severe chances through general thunderstorms and scattered showers remain a 30% chance each day. ...Weekend and Beyond... Thermal ridging moves in under upper troughing this weekend further diminishing precip chances for a few days before trough returns to the western CONUS bringing more shortwave activity to the northern plains early next week. Less than 30% chance for > 0.10" of precip any given day due to uncertainty in pattern evolution, though general pattern looks favorable for more rain chances. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1030 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Gusty northwest winds between 25-35kt will continue to impact TAF sites through 00Z Friday, including tonight. Winds will be relatively lower tonight through 15Z until another uptick in winds start thereafter. Gusts Thursday after 15Z are forecast to be generally between 30-40kt. MVFR CIGs are forecast to spread into northeast ND and northwest MN tonight. TAF sites forecast to be impacted include KDVL, KGFK,KTVF, and KBJI. These lowered CIGs are forecast to lift into VFR criteria around 15Z Thursday, although confidence is lowered in timing of this improvement, with a 30% chance it extends after 18Z Thursday. Isolated light rain showers/virga will remain possible tonight. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJ/AH DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...CJ