872
FXUS63 KFGF 070811
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
311 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances across the area at various points this
weekend and beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...Synopsis...

Clear skies currently over the FA this morning, but clouds are
visible to the west on satellite, tracking east. An upper level
closed low will push into southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan as the
weekend continues. While some guidance shows the low being whisked
east by upper level flow, most other guidance shows the low sitting
in southern Canada for at least a few days. After that, the next
week looks like brief ridging then NW/W flow aloft depending on
which guidance set you use.


...Precipitation Chances...

In regards to rain, the first system is going to begin today and
continue into the weekend. Precipitation amounts from this first
wave Friday into Saturday look to be <0.25", but the probabilities
for >0.25" are 20 - 30% in the area between MN HWY 200 and I-94.
Sunday looks to have precipitation chances too, but the chances are
only around 20% at most in the area, and QPF amounts look to be less
than 0.10". Next chance for rain will be from a shortwave late
Monday into Tuesday next week, but again, moisture looks to be
lacking with probabilities for >0.25" about 20 - 30% across the
whole area. With both these systems, the chances for severe weather
are low, and widespread thunderstorm chances are low in guidance
with lack of instability. We are entering the season of pop-up
thunderstorms though, so some isolated ones on a sunny day cannot be
ruled out.

Because of the divergence in guidance with regards to the upper
level pattern, predictability for showers and thunderstorms goes
down and gets washed out to minor chances nearly every day. We will
have to see how these chances show themselves in the CAMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions with mid clouds moving through. Some precip
chances late in the period but not confident enough to put into
TAFs at this point. Winds light and variable or westerly will
begin to pick up from the northwest again by tomorrow afternoon,
then decrease again after sunset.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...JR