Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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007 FXUS65 KFGZ 220524 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1024 PM MST Tue May 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Fair skies, seasonable temperatures, and periods of gusty southwest winds will continue through the week. && .UPDATE...Clear skies tonight with winds becoming light and variable. This will allow us to radiate efficiently and temperatures will be on the cold side, especially in the typical cold spots. Additionally, with various wildfires and prescribed burns ongoing, there will be haze and smoke hanging around. At night, the haze/smoke will tend to linger and settle into the lower lying areas and drainage basins so take precautions if are sensitive to smoke/haze. Forecast is on track so only minor edits were needed with the update this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION /402 PM MST/...As the trough that recently affected Arizona now heads into the Midwest, dry westerly flow remains in its wake. Mild temperatures, sunny skies, and relatively light winds are the implications for our area. Although the weather is quiet, several prescribed fires in the Flagstaff area either occurring now or planned for this week will create areas of smoke and haze. Those sensitive to poor air quality should exercise caution and avoid time outdoors in affected locations. Smoke settles near the surface after dark, so keep those windows shut to prevent the pervasive smell of smoke from entering your home. A kink in the upper level flow will bring an increase in southwest winds Thursday through Saturday. Gusts at the surface past 30 mph are forecast along and north of the Mogollon Rim each day through this period. Along with the continued dry air, critical fire weather conditions are possible in some areas. Global model guidance points to stronger ridging to develop over the Southwest next week. As a result, warmer temperatures are increasingly likely in Arizona. Just a reminder, we are headed into what is normally the hottest and driest time of year. With the lack of cloud cover and high sun angle, extreme UV index levels are a regular occurrence. Stay safe! && .AVIATION...Wednesday 22/06Z through Thursday 23/06Z...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, outside of reduced visibilities from HZ/FU due to prescribed burns. Light and variable winds will continue overnight, with SW winds 10-20 kts gusting near 25 kts in the afternoon. OUTLOOK...Thursday 23/06Z through Saturday 25/06Z...VFR conditions will persist through the outlook period, with periods of MVFR from HZ/FU due to prescribed burns. Expect SW winds 15-25 kts gusting 30-40 kts each afternoon, with lighter winds overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Look for dry conditions with mild temperatures. Expect southwest winds 10-20 mph gusting near 25 mph on Wednesday, becoming 15-25 mph gusting near 35 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH values between 8-20% each afternoon. Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions with gradually cooling temperatures through Saturday. Gusty southwest winds with gusts 30- 40 mph during the afternoon on Friday and Saturday, with lighter winds returning by Sunday. Minimum RH values 10-20% expected each afternoon. Near-critical fire weather conditions possible across the Little Colorado River Valley on Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Meola/Benji AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff