282
FXUS65 KFGZ 070537
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1037 PM MST Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures will continue through the end of the
week. Isolated showers/thunderstorms across the higher terrain
through the weekend will primarily impact eastern Arizona. Afternoon
highs will gradually cool Saturday and Sunday before another warming
trend returns next week.

&&

.UPDATE...After several locations in northern Arizona broke high
temperatures records for the day, the cooler evening is a welcome
relief. A few flashes of lightning occurred in the area, but
overall, thunderstorm activity was minimal. Most of the cumulus
clouds have dissipated this evening as high clouds stream
northward into the central portion of the state. These clouds will
help keep temperatures from cooling too much despite the dry
conditions. Additionally, smoke and haze from the Bravo Fire south
of Bellemont will impact air quality for portions of western
Flagstaff. However, the majority of the smoke is expected to drain
southward towards West Fork Oak Creek. Another hot day is in the
forecast tomorrow as southwest winds strengthen marginally. The
Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect through 8 PM MST Friday.
Only minor updates made this evening with the forecast on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /521 PM MST/...Hot weather will continue through
the end of the week as high pressure sits just off to the east and
low pressure is to the southwest.

This set up is allowing for a little bit of moisture to make it into
the region but not enough to call it the monsoon. The moisture flow
is originating from Mexico and off towards the Gulf of Mexico. With
this influx of moisture we are seeing good cumulus cloud
development along the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim, While
Mountains, Chuska Mountains, and off towards the Grand Canyon and
Kaibab Plateau. The hindrance here is that the low levels are quite
dry so any clouds that manage to develop into storms will drop
precipitation that largely evaporates before it reaches the surface.
There is a risk for some isolate thunderstorms this afternoon with
dry lightning being the main hazard.

A new fire in the Bellemont area (Bravo Fire) is producing a good
amount of smoke that will settle down to the surface this evening
and overnight. With the heat, we know many like to open windows for
the cooler night air but tonight it might be best to avoid opening
the windows due to smoke. Areas around Bellemont may see some smoke
and haze through the night, as well.

The high starts to push to the east on Friday with the ridge
breaking down across the southwest. This will be the start of slight
cooldown across our area. Friday will still be hot, especially in
the Grand Canyon, Glen and Marble Canyons, and the lower elevations
of Yavapai County. No changes to the heat headlines were made.

The heat starts to ease a bit on Saturday and Sunday as the low off
to the southwest starts to move northward and into southern Arizona.
Temperatures will be closer to normal as we head through Sunday.
Continued isolated chances for showers and thunderstorms across far
eastern Arizona (mainly towards the White Mountains).

Heading into the new week, we will once again see high pressure
building in from the southeast. This will bring hot temperatures
back into the region with the possibility for heat headlines.

Models are indicating that a strong area of low pressure will
develop off the southern California coast early in the week and then
tracks into the Desert Southwest. Something to keep an eye on as
this has the potential to bring us better chances for some showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 07/06Z through Saturday 08/06Z...Look for
mainly VFR conditions with some smoke and potential MVFR
conditions near KFLG. Look for another round of isolated
showers/thunderstorms after 20Z with gusty and erratic winds
possible. Light winds tonight becoming southwest at 5-15 kts
gusting to 25 kts by Friday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 08/06Z through Monday 10/06Z...VFR conditions
are expected with ongoing afternoon (18Z-02Z) isolated high-based
showers/thunderstorms, primarily over eastern Arizona. Light
nighttime winds but with afternoon winds southwest at 5-15 kts
gusting to 25 kts continuing.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Hot and mainly dry weather.
Look for breezy southwest winds from 10 to 20 mph, gusting near 25
mph each afternoon. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms are possible,
primarily for eastern Arizona. Storm related hazards include dry
lightning and erratic, gusty winds. Wetting rains are unlikely.
Afternoon RH values 5-10% on Friday increase to 7-15% on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Look for southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph
with afternoon RH values ranging from 10-20 percent. Isolated, high-
based thunderstorms will continue for the eastern zones. Seasonable
temperatures are forecast.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Friday for
AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mazon/Meola
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff