538
FXUS65 KFGZ 021710
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1010 AM MST Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Widespread to scattered showers and thunderstorms
through Thursday. Drier and warmer conditions return for the holiday
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday...A closed low continues to
remain to the west of the area this morning but is expected to lift
and cross the region over the next 36 hours or so. With the ridge
situated to our east, we will continue to have a strong southerly
fetch and advection of moisture into the region. As the low pushes
to the east, it will bring in some enhanced dynamics and help to
provide additional lift to the region. With the increased moisture
and strong lift present, we should see more widespread storms. PWATs
around 1.00" today lend support to efficient rainmaking storms
today. Throw in the slower storm motion and we will see an increase
in the probability for flash flooding to occur. Additionally, some
of the stronger storms will see gusty winds around 40-50 mph and
small hail, with isolated severe gusts possible. Similar conditions
exist for Thursday, but as the low/trough pushes further east, we
will see some drier air start to push into our western areas and
PWATs will drop down closer to 0.60-0.80" across the region. This
will push the better chances for showers and thunderstorms eastward
through the day.

Friday onward...As the low passes to the north and east, a more
westerly flow develops and brings in some much drier air. Some
isolated chances for showers may continue across far eastern
Arizona, mainly the White Mountains, but even that is looking to be
<10% through Friday. For the weekend, things dry out further and
little to no precipitation is expected in our forecast area.
Temperatures will also start to warm once again for the weekend and
we could see temperatures nearing 110 degrees in the lower
elevations of the Grand Canyon by Sunday. By the end of the weekend,
the high retrogrades and moves across Arizona/New Mexico before
settling over the Great Basin around the middle of next week. This
will bring back hot temperatures and is not really a great set up to
keep showers and thunderstorms in our area.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 02/18Z through Thursday 03/18Z...Widespread -SHRA/-TSRA
forecast through at least 04Z. Reduced visibilities from heavy
rain likely in stronger storms. Expect winds to be S through W
10-20 kts gusting near 25-30 kts, but gusty/erratic outflow winds
near 35-45 kts possible through 04Z. Light and variable winds look
to return after 06Z. HZ/FU possible near KRQE from a nearby
wildfire.


OUTLOOK...Thursday 03/18Z through Saturday 05/18Z...Mostly VFR
conditions expected through the outlook period. Brief MVFR
conditions possible Thursday between 18Z and 00Z due to
-SHRA/-TSRA, primarily along and east of a KGCN-KFLG-KPAN line.
 Look for SW-W winds 10-20 kts each afternoon with gusts up to 25
 kts. Gusty/erratic winds possible on Thursday due to
 showers/storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Widespread to scattered showers
and thunderstorms expected each day. Brief downpours, hail, and
gusty, erratic winds with gusts to 40-50 mph possible in and around
thunderstorms. Outside of storms, expect SW winds 10-20 mph with
gusts 25-30 mph each day.

Friday through Sunday...Isolated showers possible near the
White Mountains on Friday. Otherwise, expect warmer and drier
conditions through the weekend with afternoon RH values dropping
back down into the teens. SW- W winds 5-15 mph with gusts 20-30
mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff