012
FXUS65 KFGZ 090522
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1022 PM MST Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Near average temperatures Sunday will trend back to 5
to 10 degrees above normal by Wednesday. Any isolated showers and
thunderstorms will primarily impact portions of eastern Arizona
Sunday into this upcoming week.

&&

.UPDATE...Southwest winds continue to decrease this evening as
temperatures cool. Mid to upper-level cloud cover will likely
increase overnight ahead of a weak, shortwave trough on track to
push up from the south-southwest on Sunday. This will allow
temperatures to cool to average for this time of year with south-
southwest afternoon breezes of 10-20 mph. Expect moderate humidity
recoveries overnight, followed by continued dry conditions Sunday
afternoon with widespread humidity of 10-15%. The slight chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms remains in the forecast for
Sunday afternoon, confined to the White Mountains region where
there is more moisture availability. Any storms that do develop
will likely be high-based, increasing the threat for dry lightning
strikes. Shower chances remain confined towards New Mexico for
much of this week with temperatures on track to warm up again by
Tuesday/Wednesday. Besides for a few tweaks to tonight`s low
temperature forecast, no other changes were needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /418 PM MST/...Shifting ridge is providing some
heat relief today and tomorrow. Meanwhile, the chance for
isolated showers/high based thunderstorms has shifted east today.
Satellite shows lots of cumulus development just over the state
line, though an isolated shower over the Whites this afternoon can
not be totally ruled out. Elevated PWATS (0.2-0.4) with a weak
disturbance within the upper level flow will help bring precip
chances back west Sunday...though chances are still low and mainly
confined to the White Mountains. Some development near the Four
Corners/Chuskas are also possible, though even lower in chance
compared to the White Mountains. Everywhere else will see an
uptick in mid and upper level clouds tomorrow afternoon.

The first half of next work week will be characterized by light
winds and warming temperatures once again. Returning high pressure
combined with a low off Baja California will allow for moderating
temperatures through the first half of next week, eventually
allowing temperatures to return to 5-10 degrees above normal by
Wednesday. With high pressure overhead, winds will slack.

By the later half of next week, the low off the Baja Coast is
currently expected to lift north as the ridge shifts. This will
open the window for more isolated coverage in showers and high
based thunderstorms primarily for the afternoons. Overall moisture
availability will once again be low with this, so don`t bank on
any meaningful moisture from this system. In reality, this will
likely be another window to provide lightning started fires.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 09/06Z through Monday 10/06Z...VFR conditions
expected to continue through the TAF period. There is a slight
chance for showers and thunderstorms near/south of a KSOW-SJN line
after 18Z, but elsewhere looks to be dry. Light and variable
winds forecast overnight, with SW winds 10-20 kts returning after
16Z.

OUTLOOK...Monday 10/06Z through Wednesday 12/06Z...VFR conditions
look to continue through the outlook period. Expect W-SW winds
generally 5-15 kts, with overnight winds returning to light and
variable.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday through Monday...Slightly cooler weather for
Sunday before temperatures start warming Monday. Southwest winds 10
to 20 mph and gusts as high as 30 mph Sunday, becoming much lighter
Monday. Afternoon RHs in the mid teens to single digits both days.

Tuesday through Thursday...Temperatures will continue warming
Tuesday, peaking Wednesday with highs 5-10 degrees above normal once
again. Afternoon winds will be increasing each afternoon, eventually
becoming 10-20 mph sustained with gusts around 30 mph by Thursday,
which combined with mid teen to single digits RHs would be elevated
fire weather conditions.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...LaGuardia/RKR
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...RKR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff