035
FXUS65 KFGZ 082318
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
418 PM MST Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Near normal temperatures Sunday will trend back to 5
to 10 degrees above normal by Wednesday. Any isolated showers and
thunderstorms will primarily impact portions of eastern Arizona
Sunday into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Shifting ridge is providing some heat relief today
and tomorrow. Meanwhile, the chance for isolated showers/high
based thunderstorms has shifted east today. Satellite shows lots
of cumulus development just over the state line, though an
isolated shower over the Whites this afternoon can not be totally
ruled out. Elevated PWATS (0.2-0.4) with a weak disturbance
within the upper level flow will help bring precip chances back
west Sunday...though chances are still low and mainly confined to
the White Mountains. Some development near the Four
Corners/Chuskas are also possible, though even lower in chance
compared to the White Mountains. Everywhere else will see an
uptick in mid and upper level clouds tomorrow afternoon.

The first half of next work week will be characterized by light
winds and warming temperatures once again. Returning high pressure
combined with a low off Baja California will allow for moderating
temperatures through the first half of next week, eventually
allowing temperatures to return to 5-10 degrees above normal by
Wednesday. With high pressure overhead, winds will slack.

By the later half of next week, the low off the Baja Coast is
currently expected to lift north as the ridge shifts. This will
open the window for more isolated coverage in showers and high
based thunderstorms primarily for the afternoons. Overall moisture
availability will once again be low with this, so don`t bank on
any meaningful moisture from this system. In reality, this will
likely be another window to provide lightning started fires.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 09/00Z through Monday 10/00Z...VFR conditions
forecast to continue through the TAF period. Look for SW winds
10-20 kts, gusting near 25 kts through 06Z. Light and variable
winds expected overnight/early morning. SW winds 10-20 kts return
after 18Z Sunday. Slight chance for showers/thunderstorms
along/south of a KSOW-KSJN line between 18Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK...Monday 10/00Z through Wednesday 12/00Z...VFR conditions
look to continue through the outlook period. Expect W-SW winds
generally 5-15 kts, with overnight winds returning to light and
variable.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday through Monday...Slightly cooler weather for
Sunday before temperatures start warming Monday. Southwest winds 10
to 20 mph and gusts as high as 30 mph Sunday, becoming much lighter
Monday. Afternoon RHs in the mid teens to single digits both days.

Tuesday through Thursday...Temperatures will continue warming
Tuesday, peaking Wednesday with highs 5-10 degrees above normal
once again. AFternoon winds will be increasing each afternoon,
eventually becoming 10-20 mph sustained with gusts around 30 mph by
Thursday, which combined with mid teen to single digits RHs would be
elevated fire weather conditions.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...RKR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff