Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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447 FXUS65 KFGZ 210329 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 829 PM MST Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Strong winds will diminish this evening, with a few sprinkles or isolated light showers possible over eastern Arizona. Expect dry, breezy, and mild weather through the rest of the week with near normal temperatures. && .UPDATE...A few localized areas are still seeing elevated winds this evening, but overall, calmer conditions are slowly returning. As a result, the Wind Advisory expired at the 7 PM MST/8 PM MDT this evening. Similarly, the Red Flag Warning expired at the same time due to conditions dropping below the product criteria. The rest of the week will be full of near-normal temperatures, breezy winds, and mostly sunny conditions. The previous discussion/forecast remains largely on track, so no updates were made other than the expiration of both products. && .PREV DISCUSSION /434 PM MST/...Very windy across the northland today, particularly in the corridor from Two Guns to Winslow where gusts in excess of 60mph were recorded this afternoon. Some very light precipitation is moving through Gila, southern Coconino and Navajo Counties, but only a hundredth or two have been recorded so far and don`t expect meaningful accumulations at this time. The Red Flag Warning and Wind Advisory will stay in effect into this evening. The axis of the trough responsible for the strong winds and light showers will pass through Arizona this evening, with decreasing clouds and lighter winds overnight. With very dry air in place, the temperatures have the potential to get quite cold tonight (and Tuesday night) with the light winds, and we`re likely to see freezing temperatures in a couple of our high-elevation cold spots. The rest of the week will be dominated by low-amplitude troughing or nearly featureless zonal flow. Expect dry, breezy weather with seasonable temperatures through Friday. We`ll be keeping our eye on Friday and Saturday where the winds may be strong enough to bring critical fire weather conditions back into our area. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 21/00Z through Wednesday 22/00Z...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Areas of BLDU, mainly near KINW through 01Z. ISO SHRA east of a KRQE-KSOW line through 06Z, which may produce gusty and erratic winds. Otherwise, SW winds 20-30 kts, gusting 35-45 kts through 03Z, then 15-25 kts gusting 20-30 kts through 06Z. Winds become around 10 kts or less after 06Z. Winds increase 10-20 kts gusting to 20-30 kts after 16Z/Weds. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 22/00Z through Friday 24/00Z...VFR expected with SW-W winds 10-20 kts, gusting 25-30 kts each day. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday through Wednesday...Very dry conditions will continue through Wednesday with southwest winds 10-20 mph. Minimum RH values 5-15 percent each afternoon with decent overnight recoveries. Thursday through Saturday...Dry conditions continue through the rest of the week. Southwest winds 10-20 mph with gusts 20-30 mph each day. Minimum RH values 10-20 percent expected each afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Konieczny/BAK AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff