611
FXUS65 KFGZ 241013
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
315 AM MST Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy weather continues across northern
Arizona through Saturday. Lighter winds and a noticeable warming
trend will arrive by Sunday, remaining through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A broad and longer-wave trough to our north will have
one last s/wv move through it today and Saturday, before the pattern
breaks apart and shifts east.

This s/wv will deliver windy conditions to our area today and into
Saturday, with the axis of higher winds shifting into the eastern
CWA by Saturday, The timing has changed subtly, allowing for less
wind speeds today and then the stronger winds aloft moving through
Arizona overnight, mixing out again to the east Saturday. We were
already looking at borderline Wind Advisory criteria today, along
with near Critical Fire Weather conditions east of Flagstaff. With
the timing change, we will definitely avoid and headlines today, but
may have to consider at least a wind product for our eastern zones
on Saturday.

After Saturday, higher hghts move into the southwestern U.S. with
decreasing gradients. As a result, expect a solid warming trend next
week, with less wind and continued dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 24/06Z through Saturday 25/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions with pockets of MVFR conditions around KCMR and KFLG due
to smoke and haze. Light winds overnight will ramp up after
daybreak. Southwest winds at 15 to 25 knots, gusting 30 to 40 knots,
will become common after 18Z before weakening during the evening
hours. Patches of blowing dust are possible around KINW.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 25/06Z through Monday 27/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions continue. On Saturday, southwest winds at 15 to 25 knots
with gusts of up to 40 knots. On Sunday, generally west winds at 10
to 20 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Dry conditions with cooler
than normal temperatures. Near-critical fire weather conditions
expected today and Saturday across the Little Colorado River Valley.
Winds southwest 15-25 mph, with gusts 25-35 mph each afternoon.
Minimum afternoon RH values 10-20%.

Sunday through Tuesday...Warming temperatures and continued dry
conditions. Winds primarily southwest 10-20 mph each day. Minimum
afternoon RH values 5-15%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Benji
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff