727
FXUS65 KFGZ 102042
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
142 PM MST Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions remain for
today. High pressure then begins to build over Arizona, leading
to hot temperatures across the region for the middle of the week.
Cooler, more seasonable temperatures return to finish out the
week, along with a chance for showers and thunderstorms later
Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Weak low pressure over New Mexico continues to keep
northeast Arizona partly to mostly cloudy this afternoon. Modest
low level moisture (dewpoints near 40F) will bring a few isolated
light showers this afternoon during peak heating, mainly near the
Chuska Mountains. Elsewhere, near normal temperatures and mostly
sunny skies prevail.

Tuesday and Wednesday - high pressure centered over northern
Mexico will strengthen and extend northward into Arizona.
Afternoon high temperatures will increase accordingly, reaching
near 10 degrees above climatological averages Tuesday then 10-15
degrees above for Wednesday. The Excessive Heat Warning for areas
below 4000 feet beginning Wednesday looks good. A closed low off
the coast of northern Baja will begin to shift eastward by
Wednesday with an increase in wind speeds in western Arizona with
gusts 25-30 mph.

Thursday and Friday - there is good model agreement that the
closed low off the coast will move northeastward toward western
Arizona Thursday, then cross the state Thursday night and Friday.
Gradients out ahead of the low increase and will lead to more
widespread gusty southwest winds Thursday, becoming more westerly
and shifting to mainly eastern Arizona for Friday. Preliminary
speeds of 15-25 mph with gusts 25-35 mph are forecast. This will
bring some elevated fire weather concerns as humidity remains low.
The Excessive Heat Warning below 4000 feet continues through
Thursday. As the low moves across the area, it will bring some
mainly mid level moisture with it, leading to a chance of high-
based showers Thursday evening. By Friday, the best chance
(20-40%) for high-based showers and thunderstorms shifts to areas
mainly northeast of the Mogollon Rim. There will be a threat of
dry lightning and some new fire starts, again mainly northeast AZ.

Saturday and Sunday - the closed low moves well east of Arizona as
a larger trough takes shape over the northwest US. Dry weather
returns with breezy southwest winds. Temperatures a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 10/18Z through Tuesday 11/18Z...VFR conditions
persist with mid to high level clouds over northeast/east
Arizona. W-SW winds 5-15 kts this afternoon, becoming light and
variable overnight. Lighter winds expected going into Tuesday.


OUTLOOK...Tuesday 11/18Z through Thursday 13/18Z...VFR conditions
persisting. Daytime winds continue to remain W-SW, 10-20 kts with
gusts 20-30 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday through Wednesday...Warming temperatures and
low teens to single digit afternoon RHs expected both Tuesday and
Wednesday. Tuesday will feature generally light winds with varying
directions. Winds increase Wednesday becoming SW at 10 to 15 mph
with gusts 15-25 mph.

Thursday through Saturday...Elevated fire weather conditions
expected for Thursday and Friday. Afternoon RHs will continue
falling into the low teens to single digits through the week for
most of northern Arizona. Winds will increase Thursday and Friday
with afternoon gusts 20-35 mph. Lighter winds are expected Saturday
but warm, dry weather persists. Isolated showers and high based
thunderstorms are possible north of the Mogollon Rim Thursday night
into Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ Wednesday to 8
PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...RKR
FIRE WEATHER...RKR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff