Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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073 FXUS65 KFGZ 110541 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1041 PM MST Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build and strengthen over Arizona, leading to hot temperatures across the region for the middle of the week. Cooler, more seasonable temperatures return to finish out the week, along with a chance for showers and thunderstorms later Thursday into Friday. && .UPDATE...Isolated showers have ended near the New Mexico border this evening with sky cover clearing overnight. Tranquil weather conditions are expected for tonight with little to no wind and near average temperatures. High pressure begins to develop over much of the West tomorrow, resulting in increasing temperatures. Afternoon breezes will remain on the lighter side, 10-20 mph, for tomorrow along with persistent dry conditions. The heat will only get worse for Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure strengthens. The current Excessive Heat Warning for our lower valleys/canyons for Wednesday and Thursday looks good with no changes needed. Besides for a few tweaks to the low temperatures tonight, the forecast remains on track. && .PREV DISCUSSION /510 PM MST/...Weak low pressure over New Mexico continues to keep northeast Arizona partly to mostly cloudy this afternoon. Modest low level moisture (dewpoints near 40F) will bring a few isolated light showers this afternoon during peak heating, mainly near the Chuska Mountains. Elsewhere, near normal temperatures and mostly sunny skies prevail. Tuesday and Wednesday - high pressure centered over northern Mexico will strengthen and extend northward into Arizona. Afternoon high temperatures will increase accordingly, reaching near 10 degrees above climatological averages Tuesday then 10-15 degrees above for Wednesday. The Excessive Heat Warning for areas below 4000 feet beginning Wednesday looks good. A closed low off the coast of northern Baja will begin to shift eastward by Wednesday with an increase in wind speeds in western Arizona with gusts 25-30 mph. Thursday and Friday - there is good model agreement that the closed low off the coast will move northeastward toward western Arizona Thursday, then cross the state Thursday night and Friday. Gradients out ahead of the low increase and will lead to more widespread gusty southwest winds Thursday, becoming more westerly and shifting to mainly eastern Arizona for Friday. Preliminary speeds of 15-25 mph with gusts 25-35 mph are forecast. This will bring some elevated fire weather concerns as humidity remains low. The Excessive Heat Warning below 4000 feet continues through Thursday. As the low moves across the area, it will bring some mainly mid level moisture with it, leading to a chance of high- based showers Thursday evening. By Friday, the best chance (20-40%) for high-based showers and thunderstorms shifts to areas mainly northeast of the Mogollon Rim. There will be a threat of dry lightning and some new fire starts, again mainly northeast AZ. Saturday and Sunday - the closed low moves well east of Arizona as a larger trough takes shape over the northwest US. Dry weather returns with breezy southwest winds. Temperatures a few degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 11/06Z through Wednesday 12/06Z...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Winds generally 10 kts or less, varying in direction. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 12/06Z through Friday 14/06Z...VFR conditions are expected to persist. Daytime winds from the W-SW, 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday through Wednesday...Dry with warming temperatures expected through Wednesday. Afternoon RH dropping to the single digits to low teens. Light and variable winds Tuesday mainly less than 10 mph, increasing and becoming southwest 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday...Elevated fire weather conditions expected for Thursday and Friday. Afternoon RHs will continue falling into the low teens to single digits for most of northern Arizona. Winds increase Thursday and Friday with afternoon gusts 20-35 mph. Lighter winds are expected Saturday but warm, dry weather persists. Isolated showers and high based thunderstorms are possible north of the Mogollon Rim Thursday night into Friday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ Wednesday to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for AZZ005-006-037. && $$ PUBLIC...LaGuardia/JJ AVIATION...MCT FIRE WEATHER...MCT For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff